Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts on prolonged Mideast shipping risks (updated)

Goldman Sachs group

08/09/2026 01:24

Adds details and updates prices
Sept 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
It now forecasts Brent at $85 a barrel and WTI at $80 for December 2026, while it projects 2027 prices at $80 and $75 a barrel, respectively.
Iran threatened to retaliate against any new U.S. attacks on its assets, warning that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including U.S. oil and gas interests, were vulnerable.
Oil prices drifted higher and were lingering near six-week highs. O/R 
Since the war erupted with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran has increased restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies.
An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday. 
Goldman Sachs said in a note that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
It noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
"We still recommend hedging geopolitical risk through deferred Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespreads, which would rise over 100% if persistent Russia or Mideast refinery outages keep the nearby 9-month spread near current levels," the note added.   

 (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
 ((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))