REG - Greggs PLC - Q4 Trading Update

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RNS Number : 0623O  Greggs PLC  08 January 2026

 

 

 

8 January 2026

 

GREGGS PLC

("Greggs" or the "Company")

 

Q4 TRADING UPDATE

 

OUTPERFORMING A TOUGH MARKET

 

 

Q4 highlights

 

·    Fourth quarter total sales up 7.4%.  Company-managed shop
like-for-like* sales up 2.9%

·    Financial year 2025** ("FY25") total sales up 6.8% to £2,151 million
(2024: £2,014 million).  Company-managed shop like-for-like* sales up 2.4%

·    Market conditions remain challenging but outperformance continues
with year-on-year gains in market share***

·    207 new shops opened in the year, averaging four openings every week,
with 50 relocations and 36 closures, resulting in 121 net new shop openings.
2,739 shops trading as at 27 December 2025

·    Strong pipeline of shop opportunities; expect to open around 120 net
new shops in 2026

·    Supply chain capacity development on track supporting growth plans,
with phased operational roll-out of Derby facility from mid-2026

·    Year-end net cash of £47 million (2024: £125 million).
Significantly reduced capex levels expected in 2026 following peak of
investment programme

·    Anticipate full year outcome in line with the Board's previous
expectations

* Like-for-like (LFL) company-managed shop sales performance against
comparable period in 2024

** 52 weeks ended 27 December 2025 (2024: 52 weeks ended 28 December 2024)

*** Source: Circana, September 2025

 

 

Roisin Currie, Chief Executive commented:

 

"We made good progress in 2025, in a challenging year where subdued consumer
confidence impacted the food-to-go market.  Against this backdrop, I'm
pleased that Greggs outperformed the wider market and increased its market
share of visits.

 

"We enter 2026 with a strong pipeline of new opportunities to make Greggs even
more convenient for customers. This is underpinned by the investments we have
been making in our supply chain capacity, which start to become operational
this year.  Our ongoing focus on efficiency allows us to deliver exceptional
value to customers who are managing their budgets carefully."

 

Trading performance

 

Total sales for FY25 were £2,151 million, an increase of 6.8% compared with
2024, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops 2.4% higher than those
seen in 2024.  Fourth quarter total sales were 7.4% higher than in 2024, with
like-for-like sales in company-managed shops growing by 2.9%.  Subdued
consumer confidence continued to impact the food-to-go market, as did weather
extremes earlier in the year.  Against this backdrop, Greggs increased its
market share of visits, including at breakfast and in the evening (Source:
Circana, 12 months to September 2025).

 

Operational costs were well controlled and input costs were in line with our
expectations.  Our ongoing focus on structural cost reduction delivered a
further £13 million in efficiencies in 2025, as we continued to drive
additional value across our integrated supply chain and business processes.
This cost reduction activity allows us to maintain attractive pricing by
providing some mitigation to input cost increases and will continue to be a
strategic focus in 2026.

 

Our focus on delivering market-leading value was supported by the launch of
our three-part Breakfast Deal and the lunchtime £5 Big Deal offer.  We also
delivered a strong lineup of seasonal favourites in the fourth quarter; the
festive menu included the iconic Festive Bake, complemented by the Vegan
Lattice - Festive Edition.  Reflecting demand for lighter lunchtime options,
we reintroduced an improved Festive Flatbread as a healthier choice for
customers.  Other product innovation included the addition of two protein
shakes to our drinks offer and we continued to diversify our popular pizza
range with the addition of the new Tandoori Chicken topping.

 

Shop estate and supply chain development

 

In 2025 we opened four new shops per week on average, totalling 207 new shops
for the year. We closed 86 shops (consisting of 50 relocations and 36
closures), giving a total of 2,739 shops trading at 27 December 2025
(comprising 2,137 company-managed shops and 602 franchised units).  Our
estate expansion programme is developing our reach into new locations in
under-penetrated catchments as well as relocating constrained existing shops
to better locations, facilitating further growth in traditional trading areas.
We opened our first three smaller-format Bitesize Greggs shops, which allow us
to reach customers in high-footfall, prime locations that are constrained by
space. Looking to 2026 we expect a similar rate and profile of estate growth
in carefully chosen locations.

 

The planned investment in additional supply chain capacity is on track,
supporting our growth plans.  We have started to test the operational
processes at our new frozen product logistics and manufacturing facility in
Derby, with a phased roll-out to provide upstream picking of frozen products
to six of our Radial Distribution Centres due to commence in mid-2026.  We
have also completed the initial build phase of our new chilled and ambient
National Distribution Centre in Kettering, which remains on track to open in
2027.

 

We are now past the peak of our capital expenditure programme, with the
successful completion of the 'build phase' of our two new distributions
centres within budget.  As previously communicated, capital expenditure will
reduce significantly in 2026 and further again in 2027.  Updated guidance
will be provided at the time of our 2025 preliminary results announcement.

 

Financial position and outlook

 

In light of Q4 trading and continued strong cost management through 2025, the
Board anticipates reporting a full year profit before tax outcome for FY25 in
line with its previous expectations, before taking account of the one-off
impact of accounting for £4.5 million that relates to previous years' sales
tax costs.

 

Greggs ended 2025 with a net cash position of £47 million (2024: £125
million). As our capex levels moderate, we expect to revert from net cash
consumption to net cash generation.  Meanwhile, continued store growth, our
strategic focus on driving LFL performance and our ongoing cost initiatives
will ensure that return on capital recovers towards target levels.

 

Looking into 2026 we expect the level of like-for-like cost inflation to be
lower than in 2025 and are confident that we can continue to mitigate this
whilst retaining our value leadership. We expect consumer confidence to remain
a market headwind in the year ahead which, along with the costs of introducing
our new supply chain capacity will put some temporary pressure on margins, as
previously disclosed. However, our competitive position remains strong and we
continue to take market share in a challenging food-to-go market.  Our store
opening programme will continue to drive further strong sales growth.

 

Taking all of this into account, in the year ahead we expect to deliver
profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, with any year-on-year
improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop.

 

We expect to report our 2025 preliminary results on 3 March 2026.

 

 

 ENQUIRIES:
 Greggs plc                                Hudson Sandler
 Roisin Currie, Chief Executive            Wendy Baker / Hattie Dreyfus /

 Richard Hutton, Chief Financial Officer   Emily Brooker / India Laidlaw

 David Watson, Head of IR
 Tel:  0191 281 7721                       Tel:  020 7796 4133 greggs@hudsonsandler.com
                                           (mailto:greggs@hudsonsandler.com)

 

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