Kazakhstan's Halyk Bank sees lenders facing falling profits in 2026

Halyk Bank AO

22/01/2026 12:21

By Mariya Gordeyeva

ALMATY, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's largest bank, Halyk Bank HSBK.KZ, HSBKq.L, expects a fall in lending and profits in the Central Asian country's banking sector in 2026, following the adoption of a new tax code and tightening of banking regulations, the chair of its managing board told Reuters on Thursday.

Umut Shayakhmetova said in an interview that 2026 would see  "a decrease in bank profitability due to taxes, and an overall decline in the retail loan portfolio. Banks will generate less net profit, less capital growth, and less liquidity."

She added: "I think that some banks will experience problems with certain parameters, and how this will further affect the financial stability of the banking sector will need to be closely monitored during the first half of the year."

Shayakhmetova linked the expected fall in profits to new laws and regulations introduced in 2025, including a hike in corporate tax rates on banks to 25% from 10%, a 10% super tax and increased minimum reserve requirements.

She said the tenge currency, which hit historic lows in 2025, is slightly overvalued, and that its average annual rate in 2026 will likely sink to 525-530 to the dollar. It is currently trading around 507.

Halyk Bank is the biggest in Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest economy and a major producer of energy and minerals.

 (Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva, writing by Felix Light, editing by Mark Trevelyan)