BofA raises Brent oil price forecast on persistent Middle East tensions

HSBC Holdings

22/09/2026 11:07

Sept 22 (Reuters) - Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026, saying prolonged geopolitical tensions through the end of the year were now its base-case scenario.
The bank raised its Brent forecast for the second half of the year to $95 a barrel from $83, according to a research note dated Monday.
BofA said disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may have peaked at about 14 million barrels per day, noting they had more recently averaged 4 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels.
While alternative routes and escorted shipments through the strait have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and heightened geopolitical tensions make a rapid recovery unlikely. The bank expects Brent to average about $80 a barrel in 2027.
BofA said that if disruptions persist into spring 2027 or damage to oil infrastructure worsens, front-month Brent contracts could spike well above $150 a barrel to curb global demand.
Goldman Sachs and HSBC raised their Brent price forecasts earlier this month, citing expectations that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will continue into next year.


 (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)
 ((Pablo.Sinha@thomsonreuters.com;))