REG - i3 Energy PLC - Q1 Update, Revised Capital & Div Program & Webinar

I3 EnergyAnnouncement

29/06/2023 07:00

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RNS Number : 3614E  i3 Energy PLC  29 June 2023

29 June 2023

i3 Energy plc

("i3", "i3 Energy", or the "Company")

Q1 2023 Operational and Financial Update, Revised 2023 Capital and Dividend
Programme

Investor Webinar via Investor Meet Company

i3 Energy plc (AIM:I3E) (TSX:ITE), an independent oil and gas company with
assets and operations in the UK and Canada, announces the following Q1 2023
operational and financial update, along with its revised 2023 capital and
dividend programme.

The Company will hold an investor webinar on Wednesday 5 July 2023 at 3:00 pm
BST including a Q&A session (details of which can be found below).

Q1 Highlights:

·    Average Q1 2023 production of approximately 22,773 barrels of oil
equivalent per day ("boepd"), representing a 24% increase from Q1 2022.

·    Capitalizing on the availability of services, i3 commenced its Q1
2023 capital programme in late Q4 2022 with a total of 8 gross wells (5.5 net)
successfully drilled by the end of Q1 2023 in its core Central Alberta, Wapiti
and Clearwater assets.

·    CO2e emission reduction initiatives continued with electrification of
12 well sites in Carmangay and Retlaw.

·    As part of i3's commitment to its total shareholder return model,
dividends of £6.12 million (USD 7.71 million) were paid in Q1 2023.

·    Post quarter-end strengthened the Company's balance sheet with the
refinancing of its outstanding loan notes of circa CAD 50 million with a new
CAD 100 million facility.

 

Outlook:

 

·    Given prevailing and forecast commodity pricing for 2023, i3 has
adjusted its full-year 2023 capital and dividend programme.

o  Approved capital programme of USD 25 million plus USD 6 million, subject
to board approval, for a revised drilling programme targeting the Company's
Clearwater acreage. The approved and contingent drilling programme in Canada
is currently forecast to deliver 14 gross (8.5 net) oil focussed wells, down
from the previously expected 23 (net 15.2) wells.

o  i3 approved capital programme to deliver average annual production of
20,000 to 21,000 boepd, representing an increase of up to 3% over 2022
production.

o  The Company's adjusted dividend programme is forecast to return £15.4
million in dividends during the first nine months of 2023.

 

Majid Shafiq, CEO of i3 Energy plc, commented:

"Q1 2023 was another busy quarter for i3 as we commenced our planned 2023
drilling programme in Canada, drilling production wells in Central Alberta,
Wapiti and key Clearwater wells in our Dawson and Marten Creek acreage.
Average production in Q1 resulted in another consecutive quarter of growth,
dating back to Q2 2021, which is a testament to the quality of our asset base
and operations staff. Since commencement of our Canadian operations, i3 has
invested circa USD 80 million in drilling operations; grown production from
zero to over 24,000 boepd and has returned £31.0 million in dividend payments
to shareholders.

Given prevailing commodity prices and in line with our disciplined approach to
capital allocation and prudent amortisation and management of the Company's
debt, we have revised down our 2023 capital and dividend programme, protecting
the value of the assets and providing us with the flexibility to ramp up
operations should commodity prices improve. We remain confident that our asset
base, with a 2PDP NPV10 per share of £0.36 and P+P NPV10 per share of £0.81
as at 1 January 2023, i3's total shareholder return model and business
strategy which, subject to market conditions, optimises growth through
drilling or alternatively M&A if commodity prices remain low, will allow
us to continue to deliver strong returns to shareholders."

Production Update

Production in Q1 2023 averaged 22,773 boepd, comprised of 69.6 million
standard cubic feet of natural gas per day ("mmcf/d"), 5,569 barrels per day
("bbl/d") of natural gas liquids ("NGLs"), 5,238 bbl/d of oil & condensate
and 373 boepd of royalty interest production. The strong quarterly production
represents an increase of approximately 24% over Q1 2022. Production growth in
Q1 2023 was achieved despite the impact of gathering system pressure
constraints and curtailments relating to the ongoing capacity restrictions in
the Pembina Peace Pipeline liquid line in the Company's Wapiti area, which
necessitated selling a higher proportion of hot gas rather than NGLs, and a
reduction in over 500 boepd of production over the quarter. i3 expects these
restrictions will be minimized or resolved by mid Q3 2023 with the
commissioning of Keyera's Key Access Pipeline System ("KAPS"). Despite these
recent constraints, solid performance in Q1 has resulted in i3 realising
consecutive quarter-on-quarter increases in production since Q2 2021, which
reflects both the predictable low-decline nature of the Company's base assets
and the quality of its inventory of development drilling locations.

                                   Period Average Production Comparison: Last Five Quarters
                                   Q1 2023       Q4 2022       Q3 2022       Q2 2022       Q1 2022
 Production (boepd)                22,773        22,757        20,571        19,502        18,391

 Oil & Condensate (bbl/d)                                      4,396         3,886

                                   5,238         5,119                                     3,945

 NGLs (bbl/d)                      5,569         5,106         5,038         5,099         4,942

 Gas (mcf/d)                       69,555        72,442        64,180        60,785        54,689

 Royalty Interest (boepd)                                      440           385

                                   373           458                                       389

 

Corporate field production estimates averaged 20,729 boepd, for the seven-day
period ending 31 May 2023, comprised of approximately 63.6 mmcf/d of natural
gas, 4,990 bbl/d of NGLs, 4,741 bbl/d of oil and condensate and an estimated
400 boepd of gross overriding royalty interest production. Throughout May and
into June, production has been affected by planned facility turnarounds, at
operated and third-party area gas plants.  Production over this period has
been further impacted by the ongoing Alberta wildfires, which have curtailed
production in the Company's Lodgepole, Wapiti and Simonette areas. No more
than 15% of corporate production has been temporarily shut-in at any one time
throughout these events.

Hedging Programme

i3's risk management strategy currently protects USD ~45.6 million((1)) (CAD
60.7 million) of net operating income for 2023 with current hedges in place to
cover 38.9%, 22.6%, 18.4% and 16.9% of the Company's projected Q1, Q2, Q3 and
Q4 2023 production volumes, respectively. i3's hedges are as follows:

 

              Swaps                             Costless Collars                                                    Basis Swaps
 GAS          Volume (GJ)   Price (C$/GJ)       Volume (GJ)   Avg Floor Price (C$/GJ)   Avg Ceiling Price (C$/GJ)   Volume (mmbtu)  Price ($US/mmbtu)
 Q1 2023      2,397,500     4.41                 1,125,000    5.80                      10.09
 Q2 2023                                                                                                            960,101         (1.46)
 Q3 2023      610,000       2.76                                                                                    970,652         (1.46)
 Q4 2023      920,000       2.76                                                                                    327,067         (1.46)

                                                                                                                    Participation Swaps((2) )
 OIL          Volume (bbl)  Price (C$/bbl)      Volume (bbl)  Avg Floor Price (C$/bbl)  Avg Ceiling Price (C$/bbl)  Volume (bbl)    Avg Floor Price (C$/bbl)
 Q1 2023      58,500        106.85              162,000       100.00                    124.22
 Q2 2023      36,400        112.83              113,650       100.00                    127.35                      91,000          90.00
 Q3 2023      138,000       101.10
 Q4 2023      138,000       101.10

 PROPANE      Volume (bbl)  Price (C$/bbl)      Volume (bbl)  Avg Floor Price (C$/bbl)  Avg Ceiling Price (C$/bbl)
 Q1 2023                                        45,000        42.00                     51.61

 

Q1 2023 Operational Results

With the success of i3's 2022 drilling programme, the Company capitalized on
the availability of services and accelerated a portion of its Q1 2023
programme in late Q4 2022. The drilling programme focussed on operated oil and
liquids rich gas wells in Central Alberta (Cardium), Wapiti (Cardium,
Dunvegan), and Clearwater (operated and non-operated) assets. As part of the
2023 programme, the Company participated in 8 gross (5.5 net) wells across its
drilling portfolio, including 7 gross (5.0 net) operated wells and 1 gross
(0.5 net) non-operated well.

Wapiti

In Q1, i3 and its working interest partner completed the drilling of 4 gross
(2.0 net) horizontal wells in the Wapiti area. The wells included 3 gross (1.8
net) operated 1.5-mile Cardium wells and 1 gross (0.2 net) operated 2-mile
Dunvegan well. The Cardium wells were efficiently drilled off a common pad and
tied-in to existing production facilities, in which i3 holds a working
interest, while the Dunvegan well was drilled off an existing pad and tied-in
to the same production facilities.

Production associated with the Q1 programme at Wapiti was impacted due to high
gathering system pressures, which restricted the Company's ability to optimize
the productive capacity of the new wells. The relevant third-party area
operator is scheduled to debottleneck the gathering system in late Q2 through
an upgrade of existing infrastructure, which is expected to alleviate line
pressure constraints, thereby eliminating restrictions on well performance,
and allowing the Company to optimize production from its new Wapiti wells.

Additionally, the Wapiti area has experienced unanticipated apportionment
issues associated with the Pembina Peace Pipeline liquids line, which has
resulted in reduced liquids yields realized by area operators. i3 expects the
apportionment issues to be resolved with the upcoming commissioning of KAPS.

Central Alberta

i3's Q1 capital programme in Central Alberta was focussed primarily in the
greater Lodgepole area, where the Company expanded its extensive
infrastructure network and drilled 1 gross (1.0 net) well. The Company's
infrastructure improvements include a 2.3 km pipeline to reroute production
away from third-party infrastructure, reducing the fee structure and improving
run-time efficiencies.  The rerouting project was executed on-time and below
budget.

 

i3 drilled 1 gross (1.0 net) horizontal Cardium oil well in the Lodgepole area
of Central Alberta. The well was drilled off an existing pad-site and tied
into its new pipeline system. The well was drilled on-budget and placed on
stream in late Q1. The performance of the new well has been impacted by
disruptions associated with wildfires in the area.  As proximal wildfires
continue, or are brought under control, the Company will remain focussed on
optimizing its production output while maintaining personnel safety as its
highest priority.

Clearwater

In Q1, i3 drilled 3 gross (2.5 net) multilateral horizontal Clearwater wells
at Dawson and Marten Creek as part of its ongoing exploration and development
portfolio of 144 gross sections (109 net sections, equivalent to 280 km2) of
prospective Clearwater lands.

At Dawson, i3 and its 50% partner, drilled the 05-16-081-16W5 six-leg (7,500 m
of total lateral length) multilateral horizontal Clearwater well. The well was
drilled with oil-based mud ("OBM") and placed on production in late January.
After recovering the OBM drilling fluid, the well had an initial 30 days'
production averaging 81 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") before being shut-in
late March due to road bans associated with spring breakup. Scaling the well
performance for an industry standard eight-leg multilateral horizontal well
configuration (10,000 m) translates, encouragingly, to an estimated 110 bopd
rate. With the success of this initial earning well, i3 and its 50% partner
have elected to drill the second and final earning well at Dawson, which the
Company anticipates will be drilled and on production prior to year-end.

At Marten Creek, i3 followed up on its 2022 recompletion activity with 2 gross
(2.0 net) exploratory three-leg multilateral horizontal wells (retrieving a
vertical core from one well). The two exploratory wells were drilled in
January, targeting two separate Clearwater sequences. The core indicated two
thick, oil saturated sands with encouraging porosity and permeability levels
and free oil was detected in the rig process system during drilling
operations. The wells were equipped with temporary production facilities and
placed on production in late January and early February, respectively.  Due
to unseasonably warm weather in the area and early breakup of ice-roads,
production equipment had to be removed from the well-sites before all the
associated OBM was recovered. i3 intends to return this coming winter to
complete testing of the wells to determine deliverability.

Additionally, the Company is pleased to disclose the location of its 15
section Clearwater land acquisitions, previously announced on 2 November 2022.
These 15 gross (15 net) sections are situated in the Cadotte and Walrus areas,
offsetting i3's existing land positions, and are proximal to active
development and delineation by industry peers. With these acquisitions, the
Company has increased its position at Cadotte to 18 gross (15 net) sections
and 10 gross (10 net) sections at Walrus.

Serenity

i3 continues to work with its partner Europa Oil and Gas to advance a field
development plan for a one-well development for the Serenity field.

Environmental, Social and Governance ("ESG")

i3 is committed to conducting its operations responsibly and in accordance
with industry best practices. The Company's commitment to high ESG standards
is central to maintaining our social licence to operate, creating value for
all stakeholders, and ensuring long-term commercial success.

In Q1 2023, i3 invested USD 1.20 million net, before any government grants, to
complete 20 well abandonments and further advance site reclamations across its
portfolio. Incorporating the results of the Q1 2023 programme, i3 has
successfully reduced its inactive well count by 20% since the beginning of
2022. In 2023, i3 will continue its abandonment and reclamation programme,
with approximately USD 3.91 million being directed to pipeline and wellbore
abandonments, pipeline and facility decommissioning, along with well site
reclamation.

Additionally, i3 continues to reduce its emissions footprint through its
ongoing electrification projects. In Q1 2023, the Company completed the
electrification of 12 gross (10.5 net) well sites in Carmangay and Retlaw to
eliminate the use of propane and natural gas for power generation.

Return of Capital & Change of 2023 Guidance

The Company is revising its capital and dividend programme for the remainder
of 2023.

The 2023 budget announced in December 2022 was based on consensus estimates
for 2023 oil and gas prices of USD 80/bbl for WTI and CAD 4.50/GJ for AECO
gas.  Due to slower than expected global demand growth and resilient supply
dynamics, commodity prices have subsequently fallen significantly. In
particular, the AECO gas strip forecast for 2023 has fallen to approximately
CAD 2.60/GJ while the WTI strip forecast for 2023 has fallen to approximately
USD 72.00/bbl. This reduction in commodity pricing has impacted the Company's
forecasted cash flows for 2023 in line with the sensitivity guidance i3
released in December 2022, alongside its original 2023 capital budget.

At the end of May the Company refinanced its outstanding debt of circa CAD 50
million with a new CAD 100 million facility; of which, CAD 75 million was
drawn to settle the Company's outstanding loan notes and an additional CAD 25
million provided for general working capital purposes. To align with the
Company's conservative approach to debt management, the new facility amortises
on a straight-line monthly basis (unlike the debt it replaced, which was
non-amortising). This amortisation schedule will repay the loan over its
three-year term, beginning with USD 16.1 million in amortisation, interest
commitments and associated set-up costs to be paid throughout the remainder of
2023.

The Company remains committed to its total shareholder return model,
consisting of production growth through drilling and accretive M&A
activity, and shareholder cash returns via dividends, whilst prudently
maintaining capital discipline. i3 is therefore revising its capital budget
for the year to an approved USD 25 million, and an additional amount of circa
USD 6 million, subject to board approval, for a revised drilling programme
targeting locations in the Company's Clearwater acreage, which in aggregate is
expected to result in the drilling of 14 gross (8.5 net) wells (previously 23
gross (15.2 net) wells). Due to a steady decline in 2023 gas prices, i3's
capital focus will shift from its large inventory of high-rate liquids rich
gas Glauconite and Cardium locations, to the efficient development and
delineation of its oil focussed Clearwater opportunities at Dawson and its
expanded position in Cadotte, as surface locations are secured and prepared
for operations in mid-to-late Q4. Should the outlook for commodity prices
strengthen in the second half of 2023, the Company will refresh its capital
plans to accelerate its drill ready low-risk high-impact Glauconite / Falher,
Cardium and Dunvegan / Wilrich inventory in Central Alberta, Wapiti, and
Simonette respectively. By year-end, the Company's revised capital programme
will deliver 4 gross (2 net) wells in Wapiti, 1 gross (1 net) well in Central
Alberta and, subject to board approval of the revised drilling programme, 9
gross (5.5 net) wells in the Clearwater, with production for the year forecast
to average 20,000 to 21,000 boepd, pre-drilling of the Clearwater wells. This
forecast accounts for the downtime associated with i3's, and third-party
operators, planned summer turnaround maintenance programmes, which are
currently underway, and some lesser downtime related to precautionary
shutdowns to mitigate risks associated with wildfires in Alberta. Despite the
downtime, the Company's approved capital programme is forecast to deliver
production growth of up to 3% on a year over year basis (adjusting for planned
turnarounds, curtailments and downtime associated with the wildfires, i3's
2023 revised production forecast would have been expected to deliver
approximately 7% year-over-year growth).

Due to the overarching commodity price outlook, the financial ratios and
restrictions on distributions contained within the Loan Documentation and to
align with forecast 2023 cashflows, the Company is also revising downward its
2023 expected go forward dividend by 50% from 0.171 pence/share per month to
the equivalent of 0.0855 pence/share per month. Additionally, the Company will
now commence paying dividends on a quarterly basis and will pay the Q3
dividend in October 2023, subject to being in compliance with (or obtaining a
waiver from) the financial ratios contained within the Loan Documentation,
following the financial ratio test at each quarter end. Including dividends
declared for the first 6 months in 2023 of £12.3 million, the forecast
aggregate dividend payment to shareholders for the first nine months of 2023,
of 1.28 pence per share, represents a yield of approximately 7.9% and a
forward running yield of 6.3% based on the closing price of i3's ordinary
shares of 16.26 pence on 28 June 2023. The Company will continue to review its
capital and dividend programmes on a quarterly basis, with the purpose of
balancing its total return model whilst maintaining balance sheet strength.

The Company's asset base and operating model provides a large degree of
flexibility to modify and to scale up or down its operations and capital
programme. Should commodity prices improve i3 will have the option to rapidly
deploy capital to expand its revised 2023 drilling programme. Alternatively,
during periods of low commodity pricing and low asset valuations the Company's
business model directs us to focus on growth via acquisitions to maximise
return on capital. It was through such similar initiatives in 2020 and 2021
that the Company acquired its Canadian asset portfolio at very low cash flow
and reserve-based multiples. i3 aggressively monitors the transaction market
in efforts to identify acquisition opportunities which can be appropriately
financed to provide superior returns to those achieved by organic growth.

i3's revised guidance for 2023, which is now based on strip pricing for the
remainder of the year, is shown below. Sensitivity to movement in commodity
prices is also provided.

2023 Updated Guidance

                                                  2023 guidance and assumptions ((3))
 Annual Average Production ((4))                  20,000 - 21,000 boepd
 Average Expenses ($/boe)

 Royalty                                          15.3%

 Operation & Transport                            USD 13.40 - 13.60 / boe
 Net Operating Income ((5))                       USD 75 million - 80 million
 EBITDA ((6))                                     USD 67 million - 72 million
 Capital Expenditures                             USD 25 million
 Dividends ((7)) (Forecast for Jan - Sept. 2023)  USD 19 million

 

2023 Updated Commodity Assumptions ((8))

 WTI (USD/bbl)                   $72.00/bbl
 MSW Oil Differential (USD/bbl)  $3.10/bbl
 AECO Natural Gas (CAD/GJ)       $2.60/GJ
 USD / CAD Foreign Exchange      1.33
 GBP / CAD Foreign Exchange      1.68

 

Next Twelve-Month Net Operating Income Sensitivity ((9))

 Next twelve months' sensitivity           Estimated change to net operating income
 Change in WTI USD 1.00/bbl                USD 1.30 million
 Change in AECO CAD 0.10/GJ                USD 1.40 million
 Change in CAD/USD exchange rate CAD 0.01  USD 1.27 million

 

Notice of Investor Presentation via Investor Meet Company

Management will be hosting a live presentation via Investor Meet Company on 5
July 2023 at 3:00 pm BST.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions
can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until
9am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and to meet I3 ENERGY
PLC via: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/i3-energy-plc/register-investor
(https://www.investormeetcompany.com/i3-energy-plc/register-investor)

Investors who already follow I3 ENERGY PLC on the Investor Meet Company
platform will automatically be invited.

(1) Unless otherwise denoted, all figures are referenced in USD ($) and assume
a foreign exchange rate of 1.33 CAD:USD and 1.26 GBP:USD, which is the average
forecast for 2023

(2) i3 receives the average floor price plus 50% of difference between the
average floor price and the realised price if higher.

(3) i3's 2023 guidance for its Net Operating Income and EBITDA is based on an
annual average production range of 20,000 - 21,000 boepd.

(4) Total annual average production (boepd) is comprised of approximately 48%
Oil, Condensate & NGLs, 51% Natural Gas and 1% Gross Overriding Royalty
Production

(5) Net Operating Income is a non-GAAP financial measure and is defined as
gross profit before depreciation and depletion and gains or losses on risk
management contracts, which equals revenue net of royalty expenses, less
production costs

(6) EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure and is defined as earnings before
depreciation depletion, financial costs, and tax

(7) Based on i3's forecast nine-month 2023 ordinary share dividend of £15.2
million (US$19.0 million assuming 1.26 GBP:USD) to be declared and paid during
the first nine months in 2023. The declaration of dividends is subject to
terms of loan facility and the approval of i3's board of directors, compliance
with (or waiver from) the financial ratios contained within the Company's
refinanced debt documentation and is subject to change. Forecast of Q4 2023
dividends are not included in current guidance numbers but will be revisited
when the Company reviews its Q4 capital and dividend programmes this fall.

(8) Commodity prices and foreign exchange reflect full year average realized
prices or rates

(9) Illustrates the expected impact of changes in commodity prices and the
CAD:USD exchange rate on i3's estimate of Net Operating Income for 2023 of USD
75 million to USD 80 million, holding all other variables constant. The
sensitivity is based on the commodity price and exchange rate assumptions set
forth in the table above. Calculations are performed independently and may not
be indicative of actual results. Actual results may vary materially when
multiple variables change at the same time and/or when the magnitude of the
change increases.

 

END

 

Qualified Person's Statement

In accordance with the AIM Note for Mining and Oil and Gas Companies, i3
discloses that Majid Shafiq is the qualified person who has reviewed the
technical information contained in this document. He has a Master's Degree in
Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University and is a member of the
Society of Petroleum Engineers. Majid Shafiq consents to the inclusion of the
information in the form and context in which it appears.

Enquiries:

 i3 Energy plc                                  c/o Camarco

 Majid Shafiq (CEO)                             Tel: +44 (0) 203 781 8331

 WH Ireland Limited (Nomad and Joint Broker)

 James Joyce, Darshan Patel                     Tel: +44 (0) 207 220 1666

 Tennyson Securities (Joint Broker)

 Peter Krens                                    Tel: +44 (0) 207 186 9030

 Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (Joint Broker)

 Ashton Clanfield, Callum Stewart               Tel: +44 (0) 20 7710 7600

 Camarco

 Georgia Edmonds, Violet Wilson, Sam Morris     Tel: +44 (0) 203 757 4980

 

Notes to Editors:

i3 Energy is an oil and gas Company with a low cost, diversified, growing
production base in Canada's most prolific hydrocarbon region, the Western
Canadian Sedimentary Basin and appraisal assets in the North Sea with
significant upside.

The Company is well positioned to deliver future growth through the
optimisation of its existing 100% owned asset base and the acquisition of long
life, low decline conventional production assets.

i3 is dedicated to responsible corporate practices and the environment, and
places high value on adhering to strong Environmental, Social and Governance
("ESG") practices.  i3 is proud of its performance to date as a responsible
steward of the environment, people, and capital management.  The Company is
committed to maintaining an ESG strategy, which has broader implications to
long-term value creation, as these benefits extend beyond regulatory
requirements.

i3 Energy is listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange under the
symbol I3E and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ITE. For further
information on i3 Energy please visit https://i3.energy

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the UK version of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 which is part of UK law by
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