Fundview: India's ICICI Pru Life temporarily ups long-bond exposure, sees rate hikes after September

Icici Prudential Life Insurance

14/05/2026 11:17

By Dharamraj Dhutia

MUMBAI, May 14 (Reuters) - ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICIR.NS), one of India’s largest insurers, is tactically increasing its investments in longer maturity government bonds, a position it aims to dial back by September in anticipation of rate hikes, a senior executive said.

The strategy reflects expectations that relatively lower supply of longer tenor debt will briefly push yields on long bonds lower, before two rate hikes of 25 basis points each by India's central bank kick in between October and March, Arun Srinivasan, chief of fixed income at ICICI Prudential Life said in an interview on Wednesday.

The insurer has increased its debt portfolio's modified duration to roughly six years, making it more sensitive to interest rate changes, in a purely tactical near-term move.

"We maintain a strict mandate to unwind these positions and reduce modified duration below five years by September as concerns on fiscal and inflation start to mount," said Srinivasan, citing structural constraints in global oil refining that have likely established a floor under oil prices, reinforcing inflation risks.

India's retail inflation rose by 3.48% in April. The central bank ​targets retail inflation at 4%, within a tolerance band of 2% ​to 6%.

"The impact of high global oil prices have not yet fully impacted Indian retail inflation," analysts at SBI Research said in a Monday note.

Wholesale prices on the other hand, have spiked on higher energy costs, and economists say the increase is likely to pass through to retail inflation with a lag.

"If inflationary pressures remain stubborn, the RBI will be forced to act in the latter part of the year," said Srinivasan.

India's monetary policy can look through temporary supply shocks but ​may intervene if inflation pressures ‌become entrenched, central bank Governor Sanjay ​Malhotra said on Tuesday.

For now, the insurance firm prefers investing in liquid papers, especially the benchmark 10-year bond, to navigate volatility, while allocating to 15-year and 40-year segments for  long-term investments.

India's 10-year benchmark bond yield IN064835G=CC traded around 7.03%, while the 15-year and 40-year bond yields were near 7.33% and 7.68% respectively on Thursday.

Srinivasan expects spreads between the 10-year and 40-year bonds to compress in the first half of the financial year before widening again in the second.

Within corporate debt, the insurer is focused on high-quality five-year papers, alongside exposure to acquisition financing trades and similar higher-yield credit opportunities.

($1 = 95.8163 Indian rupees)

Spread in yields of India's 10-year, 40-year bonds compresses https://reut.rs/4wLvfmf

 (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Gopika Gopakumar; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)

 ((Dharamraj.Dhutia@thomsonreuters.com;))