Mystery $8 bln locker M&A delivers low return
06/01/2026 11:33
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. By Karen Kwok LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European parcel delivery business is on the move. Last year, Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský bought Britain's Royal Mail, while DHL merged its UK business with Evri. The oddest M&A arrival came on Tuesday, when Amsterdam-listed InPost INPST.AS said it had received an indicative takeover proposal, while declining to name the possible bidder. The financial returns of a deal seem poor. It may not be the first time suitors have circled 7-billion-euro ($8 billion) InPost, whose parcel lockers allow shoppers to pick up online orders at their convenience. In 2022, Bloomberg reported that the formerly Advent-owned company had drawn attention from private equity firms. Czech investment group PPF bought into the stock in 2023 and now owns 29%, though its then-CEO Jiří Šmejc said in 2024 that he had no plans to launch a tender offer. Sky News reported on Tuesday that a consortium including Advent was behind the approach. It's possible to imagine why a buyer might be interested. As online shopping continues to power forward, lockers could proliferate. Their cost can be 25% lower than doorstep delivery, according to Kearney. And recent tariffs make shipping more expensive, leading to more cost-cutting and tie-ups in the parcel delivery sector. InPost looks like a natural consolidator, having snapped up UK-based Yodel last year. Relative to the company's own history, it also seems cheap. On Friday, before a sharp M&A-related jump, it was trading at 10.4 euros per share, compared with a 2021 listing price of 16 euros. The enterprise value to 2027 EBITDA multiple was 5, against 6 for slower growing Deutsche Post. Still, a takeover may leave the buyer stuck with slowing growth. Analysts reckon InPost’s revenue rose about a third last year, but estimates suggest that figure will dip below 20% in 2026 and hover closer to 10% thereafter, based on Visible Alpha data. Broker forecasts also imply relatively little improvement to the company's EBITDA margin in the immediate future. Finally, it's far from clear that lockers are a winning formula outside of Poland, which is InPost's most important country and contributes almost half of revenue. Lockers account for just 7% of UK parcel deliveries, according to Ecommerce News. Assume a buyer paid the Tuesday-morning share price of about 14 euros, implying an enterprise value of 9 billion euros. In return, they'd get 1 billion euros of operating profit after three years, based on 2029 analyst forecasts gathered by Visible Alpha, worth 757 million euros after deducting tax at 25%. The implied return on investment, excluding any cost savings, is just 8.4%, which compares with a 10% weighted average cost of capital for InPost per Jefferies. Admittedly, the returns would be higher if the buyer is Advent, which could use higher leverage and would seek to improve the business more. Still, it's hardly an easy delivery. Follow Karen Kwok on LinkedIn and X. CONTEXT NEWS Parcel locker company InPost on January 6 said it had received an indicative proposal for the potential acquisition of all its shares. The company did not disclose who made the approach, adding that there was no assurance that the proposal would lead to a transaction. InPost said it had formed a special committee of supervisory and management board members, which will “carefully consider all aspects of a potential transaction”. The company’s Amsterdam-listed shares rose 20% to 13.92 euros as of 1100 GMT on January 6. InPost shares are below their 2021 IPO price even after bid-related surge https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/klvyjlkrepg/chart.png (Editing by Liam Proud; Production by Oliver Taslic) ((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on KWOK/karen.kwok@thomsonreuters.com))