Analysis: Canada's Trudeau, far behind in polls, remains the Liberals' best chance

Ipsos SA

12/10/2023 11:00

(Repeats with no changes)
    By Steve Scherer
       OTTAWA, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau has had a tough year at home and on the global
stage, pushing his support as low as it has ever been, but his
backers still see him as the Liberal Party's best chance to
secure a historic fourth term in the next election.
    Trudeau, 51, has defied low polling numbers before, to win
three elections, starting in 2015. A federal election is not due
until October 2025, a decade after he first took power. Right
now, most opinion polls show Trudeau significantly trailing his
newest rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
    Last month, the Conservatives led the Liberals 39% to 30%,
an Ipsos poll showed. Some 60% of Canadians want Trudeau to step
down to allow Liberal Party members to pick a new leader, up 6
points compared with December 2022, a separate Ipsos poll said.
    That does not look likely. While some in his caucus have
grumbled about his government's lethargic response to
Poilievre's repeated attacks on cost-of-living issues, no
Liberal lawmakers have openly challenged Trudeau.
    The most frequently cited potential alternatives are Finance
Minister Chrystia Freeland and former central banker Mark
Carney. But none are perceived to be as scrappy and determined
at retail politics as Trudeau is, Liberal insiders and pollsters
say.
    "When he is on form, he can light up a room and the
others just can't," said one Liberal who played a key role in
the 2021 electoral campaign. The other potential Liberal leaders
do not "have anywhere near Trudeau's wattage," the person added.
     No Canadian prime minister since Wilfrid Laurier in 1908
has won four consecutive elections. At stake for Trudeau are
legacy policies including a bolstered social safety net and
measures positioning Canada to be a global leader in the
low-carbon economy. 
    There is "no evidence" the Liberals will pick a new leader
and "time is running out," said Frank Graves, founder of polling
company Ekos Research. "I'm not convinced that an alternative
would necessarily be any better to lead them in the next
election" because Trudeau is "still a formidable campaigner". 

    'HOUDINI'
    Trudeau has repeatedly said he plans to run and officials
close to him say he relishes the opportunity to battle
Poilievre. 
    Trudeau has had a terrible year personally and politically.
In August, he announced separation from his wife of 18 years.
The Canadian economy is stressed with interest rates seemingly
entrenched at a 22-year high and people reeling under a high
cost of living and a deepening housing crisis. 
    Internationally, Trudeau's bombshell announcement last month
linking Indian agents to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader
in British Columbia has put Canada in an awkward position with
allies who are seeking closer ties with New Delhi to counter
China's rise.
    In its latest poll published in September, Angus Reid
Institute polling company has the Conservatives at 39%, enough
for a majority in the House of Commons, versus 27% for the
Liberals.
    When trailing so clearly in polls "the power structure
around a leader starts to disintegrate at the edges, a little
bit at first and then all at once. We haven't seen that with
Justin Trudeau," said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid.
    Meanwhile, Poilievre is building his own narrative with TV
ads portraying him as a family man. 
    "Pierre Poilievre is doing an amazing job of selling himself
to Canadians," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling company
Ipsos Public Affairs. But it's not "like there's
Poilievre-mania. It's really just a desire for change," he said.
    In 2015, Ekos had the Liberals down 22 percentage points in
the spring and Trudeau won a majority in the fall. In the middle
of the 2019 campaign decades-old pictures of Trudeau in black
face emerged, and he still won, though Liberals were reduced to
a minority government.
    "We've seen him down this far before and we've seen him
climb back up," Kurl said. "He has sort of been the Houdini of
escaping terrible polling numbers before."

 (Reporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by David
Ljunggren
Editing by Denny Thomas and David Gregorio)
 ((steve.scherer@thomsonreuters.com; +1-647-480-7889;))