Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows

Ipsos SA

10/10/2024 11:00

* 
      Harris leads Trump among suburban voters by 47% to 41%
    

        * 
      Harris gains support from middle-income households, now
leading
Trump 45% to 43%
    

        * 
      Harris' modest national lead significant but battleground
states
remain crucial
    

  
    By Jason Lange and Bo Erickson
       WASHINGTON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Democratic presidential
candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald
Trump's advantage in the vast middle of American society:
suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.
Since President Joe Biden ended his flagging reelection bid on
July 21, Vice President Harris has pulled into the lead in both
of these large demographic groups, reinvigorating Democrats'
prospects in the Nov. 5 election, though the race remains
exceptionally close.
    Suburbanites, who make up about half of the U.S. electorate
and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key
prize. Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six
percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading him 43% to 40% among
suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July,
reflecting the Democrat's struggle to energize supporters. 
Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in
July and led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling
across September and October. That represents a nine-point swing
in the Democrat's favor, according to the analysis of six
Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from over 6,000
registered voters. 
    During the same periods, Trump went from leading Biden 44%
to 37% among voters in households that earn between $50,000 and
$100,000 - roughly the middle third of the nation - to trail
Harris 43% to 45%, also a nine-point swing away from Trump. The
figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points.
    Trump carried this group 52%-47% in 2020, according to a Pew
Research Center analysis of exit polls.
    Reuters/Ipsos surveys have shown voters consider the economy
the No. 1 issue ahead of the election and in a poll conducted in
October, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for
the economy, 8 points more than Harris' 38%. 
    The polls have also shown Trump as the more trusted
candidate on immigration and crime. Trump told supporters in
August he was the candidate that would keep suburbs safe and
ensure that migrants coming across the border illegally are kept
"away from the suburbs."
        Trump has blamed the Biden administration for inflation
that has hurt middle class Americans. Harris, meanwhile, has put
considerable focus in her speeches on pledges to increase the
size of the middle class. She also is more often picked in polls
as the better candidate for protecting democracy and taking a
stand against political extremism.
    "Her focus on affordability has been highly effective in
narrowing Trump's advantage on inflation and the economy," said
David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political
Report.
Wasserman said Harris appeared to be performing well among
relatively affluent suburbanites who could be growing more
optimistic about the economy, while her gains among
middle-income voters could be due to her campaign's regular
pledges to help middle-class households. 
    But he noted that voter turnout in Democratic-leaning urban
areas and Republican-leaning rural towns could also be critical
in deciding the election.
     
    TUNING IN 
    Harris supporters contacted by Reuters for follow-up
interviews this week also said they had not paid much attention
to her before she became a presidential candidate, and that they
became more supportive of her as they learned more about her. 
    The latest of the six polls, conducted Oct. 4-7, showed
Harris up a marginal 3 percentage points over Trump among
registered voters overall, 46% to 43%. 
    Her modest edge in national polling is significant although
the winner of the election will likely be determined by the
results in seven battleground states - Arizona, Michigan,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia -
where polls have also shown a tight race.
    Winning the middle - whether nationally or in the election's
key states - won't necessarily crown the victor. Democrat
Hillary Clinton, who got nearly 3 million votes more than Trump
nationwide in the 2016 election and beat him in suburban
counties by about 1 percentage point, still lost the election
when Trump flipped six states that had voted Democratic in
2012. 
    Poll respondent Sheila Lester, an 83-year-old Harris
supporter living in Peoria, Arizona, which mostly lies in the
state's battleground Maricopa County, said in a phone interview
that she had become convinced Trump would beat Biden.
    She said she rejoiced when the Democratic Party quickly
coalesced around the candidacy of Harris, especially since she
could be the first woman U.S. president.
"The response that she has gotten has made me a little bit more
proud of this country," said Lester, a retired customer service
employee who considers herself part of the middle class. She
said she liked Harris' toughness on abortion rights and her
pledge to grow the middle class. "I am definitely anti-Trump,
but I believe I'm more pro-Harris."
Maricopa County played an important role in Biden's 2020
victory, when the county narrowly flipped Democratic after
voting for Trump in 2016.
    Karen Davidson, 83, who lives in West Bloomfield, Michigan,
a middle-class suburb of Detroit, said she had not been that
familiar with Harris before she moved to the top of the ticket. 
    "I needed to know more about her to form any kind of
thought," Davidson said.
    "The way she stood up to people who were berating her, I had
to respect that having been in the industrial machinery business
when women didn't work in it, I know what that's like," Davidson
continued. "She had the strength, and that's what's needed to
run our country."
In Pooler, Georgia, a suburb of Savannah, grocery store employee
Kevin Garcia said he also was relieved Biden had bowed out and
preferred Harris' pledges to support small businesses over
Trump's promise to tax imported goods. 
    "I just feel better about the chances," said Garcia, 24, who
lives in a single-family home neighborhood in the state that,
like Arizona, narrowly flipped Democratic in 2020.

 (Reporting by Jason Lange and Bo Erickson in Washington;
Editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington)
 ((jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com; Twitter @langejason))