Harris widens lead over Trump to 47%-40%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Ipsos SA

24/09/2024 22:44

* 
      Some 43% of voters pick Trump on economy and jobs vs 41%
for
Harris
    

        * 
      Poll has margin of error of about four points
    

  
 (Adds context in paragraph 12)
    By Jason Lange
       WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Democratic Vice
President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 40%
in the race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, as she
appeared to blunt Trump's edge on the economy and jobs, a
Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday found.
    Harris had a lead of six percentage points based on
unrounded figures - which showed her with support from 46.61% of
registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48%, according to
the three-day poll that closed on Monday. The Democrat's lead
was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in
a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll. 
    The latest poll had a margin of error of about four
percentage points.
    While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos polls give
important signals on the views of the electorate, the
state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the
winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. 
Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those
battleground states, with many results within the polls' margins
of error. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed
Trump with marginal leads in three of these states - Arizona,
Georgia and North Carolina.
    Asked which candidate had the better approach on the
"economy, unemployment and jobs," some 43% of voters responding
to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll picked Trump and 41% selected
Harris. Trump's two-point advantage on the topic compares to his
three-point lead in an August Reuters/Ipsos poll and an 11 point
lead over Harris in late July shortly after she launched her
campaign.
    Harris entered the race after President Joe Biden folded his
reelection effort following a poor debate performance against
Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the
frontrunner, partly based on his perceived strength on the
economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden
administration. 
    Reuters/Ipsos polling between April and June also showed
voters picked Trump over Biden on the economy, unemployment and
jobs by between five and eight points.
    Trump has still had wide leads in some measures of
confidence in his economic stewardship. A Reuters/Ipsos poll
from August asked voters which candidate had a better approach
on the "the U.S. economy" - without specific reference to jobs
or unemployment - and Trump led Harris by 11 points, 45% to 36%.
    Both candidates are focusing campaign pledges on the
economy, which the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed was the No.
1 issue for voters. Trump on Tuesday said he would create
special manufacturing zones on federal lands. He has also
promised to raise tariffs on imported goods. 
    Harris has pledged tax breaks for families with children as
well as higher taxes for corporations. She is expected to unveil
new economic proposals this week, even though some advisers
acknowledge time is running out to convince voters with pitches
on policy.
    The polling average maintained by FiveThirtyEight.com shows
a close race at the national level, with Harris leading Trump
48.3% to 45.8%.
    The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,029 U.S. adults
online, nationwide, including 871 registered voters. Among
these, 785 were considered the most likely to turn out on
Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris led 50% to 44%,
though similar to her lead among all registered voters, her
advantage was only five points when using unrounded figures. 

 (Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Deepa
Babington)
 ((jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com; Twitter @langejason))