Jefferies favours nitrogen over potash into 2026 in tightening fertiliser market

K+S AG

11/11/2025 14:30

** Jefferies favours nitrogen fertilisers over potash into 2026, citing a tightening nitrogen market with high prices and strong global demand

** It upgrades Yara YAR.OL to "buy" from "underperform", expecting the tightness to lift pricing and keep demand resilient

** The broker notes that EU policy shifts, including carbon costs and staged tariffs on Russian/Belarusian nitrogen, turn previous disadvantages into advantages for Yara

** Normalizing European gas prices should improve Yara's margins, while blue ammonia projects are promising long-term, but concerning near-term due to potential strain on capital and shareholder returns

** Potash markets are less favourable, lacking policy support, with supply expected to remain sufficient and prices under pressure, it says

** Jefferies maintains "underperform" for K+S SDFGn.DE, stating that elevated capital expenditures limit flexibility and shareholder returns, while near-term growth relies on external factors rather than company-driven initiatives

(Reporting by Marta Frackowiak)

((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))