Analysis: With massive Polish arms deal S.Korea steps closer to Ukraine war

Korea Aerospace Industries

29/07/2022 01:56

(Repeats item first carried on Thursday)
    By Josh Smith
    SEOUL, July 28 (Reuters) - South Korea's biggest ever arms
deal will make it a major supplier of weapons flooding into
Europe since the Ukraine war began, with sales to NATO-member
Poland involving more than 1,600 tanks and howitzers, and nearly
50 fighter jets.
    South Korean and Polish officials signed a framework
agreement on Wednesday in Warsaw in a deal that Poland says is a
key part of their efforts to rearm in the face of the war in
Ukraine, where it has sent at least $1.7 billion in military
aid. 
    The scale and speed of the multi-billion dollar deal caught
some analysts off guard, as Poland has also been buying
additional Abrams tanks from the United States and has been in a
dispute with Germany over a request to obtain more Leopard
tanks.
    Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that South
Korea was the only player that could provide new weapons fast
enough.
    "It is extremely important that the first deliveries of
howitzers and tanks will take place this year," he said at the
signing ceremony.
    For the countries of NATO’s eastern flank, the prospect of
cooperation with South Korea is particularly interesting, said
Oskar Pietrewicz, an analyst with the Polish Institute of
International Affairs (PISM).
    “The war in Ukraine is a stimulus for the South Korean arms
industry,” Pietrewicz, said. “The interest in South Korea’s
offer may be even greater if one takes into account the huge
disappointment of NATO's Eastern Flank countries with the
attitude of Germany.” 
    The reluctance of some other countries to act has opened
this opportunity, said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, the Korea Chair at
the Brussels School of Governance.
    "Someone has to arm Ukraine, and South Korea is seizing this
opportunity," he said.
    
    NO LETHAL AID
    Seoul, however, isn't ready to acknowledge the sale has
anything to do with Ukraine. 
    A U.S. ally, South Korea's policy is that it will not
provide Ukraine with lethal aid, and has sought to avoid
antagonizing Russia - both for economic reasons and the
influence that Moscow can exert with North Korea.
    When asked if this deal signals greater involvement in the
Ukraine conflict, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin
stressed that it was only done bilaterally with Poland. 
    Poland has already given Ukraine some of its AHS Krab
howitzers, which are made with components from South Korea. One
security source said such transfers could require Seoul's
approval.
    A spokesman for South Korea's Defense Acquisition Program
Administration said it does not confirm details on individual
exports approvals, and said the latest deals with Warsaw are not
related to helping Ukraine, but are aimed at boosting Poland's
armed forces.
    "I think that it's partly the business opportunity but also
a political gesture," Pacheco Pardo said. "South Korea will get
a hit from this in terms of its relations with Russia, so there
is this political choice."
    
    LONG-TERM PLANS
    The Export-Import Bank of Korea said the nation's arms
exports hit a record high of more than $7 billion last year, but
this deal would potentially dwarf that.
    Officials have not confirmed its value, but the fighter jets
alone are worth around $3 billion, according to manufacturer
Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), and Poland said it is one of
their most important and largest defence orders in recent years.
    U.S.-based defence analyst firm Forecast International said
the deal could be larger than Poland’s entire current-year
defense allocation of $14.1 billion.
     "It's like all of our companies, large and small, have come
together to work on one project for the whole year, so it's
massive," said Eom Hyo-sik, a former executive at Hanwha and a
retired military officer.
    Blaszczak said the deal goes beyond merely “filling the gaps
we have in our armed forces,” and represents a “strategic
approach” including technology transfers that will see Poland
build many of the South Korean weapons and cooperate with Seoul
long into the future. 
    Among the weapons involved in the deal are variants of the
K2 Black Panther tank, which is manufactured by Hyundai Rotem,
and the K9 Thunder, a self-propelled howitzer which is built by
Hanwha Defense. 
    Hanwha Defense said it plans to establish a branch in Poland
to use for the expansion of European defense exports, including
the K9, Redback armoured vehicles, and guided missiles.
    The first stage of the deal will involve 180 tanks and 48
howitzers, with the first deliveries this year. A second stage
will include more than 800 tanks and 600 howitzers, and by 2026
both will be produced in Poland, Blaszczak said.
    The first FA-50 jets, which can be used for training as well
as combat, will arrive by the middle of next year, he added. KAI
said it will help the Polish government and companies to
establish maintenance, training, and production facilities which
it hopes could eventually help it sell 1,000 FA-50s globally, as
well as generate interest in its next-generation KF-21 jet.

 (Reporting by Josh Smith; Additional reporting by Hyonhee Shin
and Soo-hyang Choi in Seoul, and Alan Charlish in Warsaw;
Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
 ((JoshSmith1@thomsonreuters.com;))