Explainer: What we know about North Korea's new satellite and claims of Russian aid

Korea Aerospace Industries

22/11/2023 13:27

(Adds confirmation of satellite in orbit in paragraphs 4-5)
       SEOUL, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Officials and experts around
the world are seeking to determine whether North Korea's first
spy satellite is operational as it orbits the earth after being
launched on Tuesday, an effort that South Korea asserts was
likely to have included Russian aid.
    North Korea appears to have overcome the technical problems
that sent two previous attempts with its new Chollima-1 rocket
plunging into the sea.
    
    IS IT WORKING?
    Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and astrophysicist at the
Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Reuters that
U.S. Space Force data had catalogued two new objects in an
orbital plane consistent with the launch from North Korea at the
time stated by Pyongyang. 
    "I conclude the objects are the spy satellite and the rocket
upper stage," he said.
    What remains unconfirmed, however, is whether its payload,
the reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1, is operating, and
whether the North received any outside help.
    It may take some time to determine whether the satellite is
in operational orbit, is sending signals, and what its
capabilities are, analysts said.
    "To assess the success of this launch, it is crucial not
only to determine whether the projectile entered orbit but also
to secure the ability to adjust and conduct reconnaissance from
that orbit," said Hong Min, a senior fellow at the Korea
Institute for National Unification. "This includes verifying the
capability to take pictures with optical cameras and
transmitting them appropriately to the satellite centre."
    
    HOW COULD IT BE USED?
    North Korea has not shown imagery of the satellite, but
photos released by state media from a visit leader Kim Jong Un
made this year to a production facility showed small,
solar-powered satellites that are most likely similar to the one
launched on Tuesday, said Vann Van Diepen, a former U.S.
government weapons expert who works with the Stimson Center in
Washington.
    "It's likely that this is a relatively small, optical
satellite that is going to have relatively low resolution," he
told Reuters. "But even a relatively low-resolution satellite is
better than not having a satellite, which is their current
situation."
    Such a satellite is unlikely to provide the North with
detailed intelligence on specific weapons systems in South
Korea, for example, but it would still be useful for identifying
things such as large troop movements, Van Diepen added.
    To launch a more-capable satellite, North Korea will most
likely need to develop a larger rocket, which it appears to be
doing, he said.
    After the first failed test, South Korea recovered some of
the Chollima-1 wreckage - including, for the first time, parts
of a satellite, which it said had little military value.
    
    RUSSIAN AID?
    South Korea's spy agency has said North Korea may have
overcome technical hurdles with the help of Russia, which in
September publicly pledged to help Pyongyang build satellites.
    Many experts expressed doubts, however, that Moscow could
have provided game-changing assistance in the roughly two months
since then.
    "It's much too early for the North Koreans to have
integrated any assistance Russia may have agreed to supply,"
Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury
Institute of International Studies, said in a post on the social
media platform X. "Maybe the Russians gave them some advice, but
it's normal for countries to launch and learn."
    Chang Young-keun, a professor at Korea Aerospace University,
said it would have been impossible for the North to rebuild a
satellite with Russian technology or hardware assistance within
that time.
    "But Russia could have offered some analysis on previous
failures and telemetry data," he said.
    Replacing parts, improving software, system integration, and
test runs can't typically be done quickly, but Russian support
could still be valuable in key areas such as improving the
satellite's capabilities or resolving the combustion instability
that plagued an earlier launch, said Lee Choon-geun, a rocket
expert at South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute.
    
    TIES TO MISSILES?
    The United States and its allies called North Korea's latest
satellite tests clear violations of United Nations Security
Council resolutions, which prohibit development of technology
applicable to North Korea's ballistic missile programs.
    U.N. resolutions - passed with Russia's support - also ban
any scientific and technical cooperation with North Korea in
nuclear science and technology, aerospace and aeronautical
engineering and technology, or advanced manufacturing production
techniques and methods.
    The Chollima-1 seems to be a new design and most likely uses
the dual-nozzle liquid-fuelled engines developed for Pyongyang’s
Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which
has roots in Soviet designs, analysts said.
    However, although the space launch vehicle (SLV) probably
uses the same RD250-like engines as North Korea's ICBMs, there
are design differences between the two, Lewis said. 
    "North Korea is no longer shy about testing ICBMs, so no -
this really is an SLV," he said.

 (Reporting by Hyun Young Yi, Hyonhee Shin, Ju-min Park, and
Josh Smith; Writing by Josh Smith and Angus MacSwan)
 ((JoshSmith1@thomsonreuters.com;))