Auto File: Porsche hits the IPO accelerator

Loop Energy

19/09/2022 16:19

Sept 19 - Joe White
Global Autos Correspondent
joe.white@thomsonreuters.com
     
Greetings from the Motor City! 
     
Welcome back from the last weekend of summer. We had lovely
weather in Detroit and ...oh my goodness, the Lions won? https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2022/09/18/detroit-lions-start-fast-hold-off-washington-commanders/10419931002/
 Clearly, anything is possible in this world. 
     
Today, Volkswagen revs up the Porsche IPO, suppliers get ready
to surf the EV wave and Mercedes jumps into the energy
business. 
     
* The Porsche IPO: Selling stock, keeping control
Volkswagen made it official: The automaker plans to sell shares
in its Porsche brand https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-volkswagen-targets-70-75-bln-eur-valuation-planned-porsche-ipo-2022-09-18/
 on Sept. 29 at prices that will value the sports car and
performance SUV maker at 70 billion to 75 billion euros.
     
The message to most investors will be, buy in, buckle up, keep
quiet. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/porsche-poses-governance-dilemma-investors-weighing-ipo-2022-09-16/
     
Bankers for VW and Porsche SE, the holding company that
represents the Porsche and Piech families, have created a
complex structure - outlined here https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/structure-planned-porsche-ipo-2022-09-17/
 - that will allow Volkswagen to retain 75% minus one share of
the sports car brand’s voting shares, with the other 25% plus
one of the voting shares retained by Porsche SE. Other investors
will get preferred shares - giving them rights to dividends, but
not ownership. 
     
European markets are having a rough year, but so far it appears
that VW is getting support for doing the IPO now from key
investors https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/porsche-ag-valuation-sends-volkswagen-shares-3-higher-premarket-trade-2022-09-19/,
 including Qatar and Norway’s sovereign wealth funds. 
     
However, the broader market Monday had a tepid response to the
IPO terms https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/porsche-ag-valuation-sends-volkswagen-shares-3-higher-premarket-trade-2022-09-19/.
 VW shares dipped in Frankfurt, wiping out a pre-market rise.
     
If everything stays on track, VW could raise 18.1 billion to
19.5 billion euros. VW plans to pay out 49% of that sum as a
special dividend, keeping the rest - possibly as much as 9.9
billion euros - to fund its EV investments.
     
* Vitesco gets ready to surf the EV wave
German auto supplier Vitesco Technologies expects about 36% of
all light vehicles built in 2030 will have battery electric
powertrains - a significantly bigger share for EVs than the
company anticipated in December 2020, CEO Andreas Wolf told
reporters at the Detroit Auto Show. Vitesco expects another 34%
of vehicles built in 2030 will be some form of hybrid.
     
Vitesco cites S&P Global Mobility for its latest forecast.
Another consultancy, AutoForecast Solutions, expects global
electric vehicle production will only reach 28% of the total by
2030.
     
Forecasting the acceleration of electric vehicle demand over the
next eight years is a major challenge for automakers and
suppliers. https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-inventory-supply-chain-batteries-11663504014?mod=business_lead_pos5
 Get it right, and your business can gain share, profitably. Get
it wrong and your company could get stuck with excess capacity -
or be unable to meet demand. 
     
Vitesco, spun out of Continental a year ago, still makes most of
its revenue from internal combustion products. Wolf and North
American operations chief Sandy Stojkovski said orders are
coming fast for EV hardware such as electric drive axles and 800
volt inverters used for charging. During the first half, orders
for electrification tech hit 6.7 billion euros out of a total of
8.3 billion. Wolf said Vitesco expects 70% of its sales to be
tied to electrification by 2030.
     
* Mercedes invests in energy resilience
With Europe bracing for an energy supply and price shock this
winter, Mercedes-Benz said it will invest in a 100-megawatt wind
turbine farm at a test track it owns in Lower Saxony https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mercedes-benz-build-wind-farm-northwestern-germany-examining-solar-options-2022-09-19/.
 
     
The wind farm is scheduled to go online in 2025 with capacity to
generate the equivalent of 15% of the energy the company needs
in Germany. That is not in time to help this winter. But
building resilience for future disruptions to supply chains and
energy supplies is the new strategic imperative for
manufacturers. Mercedes said it will also develop new solar
power capacity at the site. 
     
* Daimler Trucks reckons the cost of supply chain snafus
Supply chain disruptions cost Daimler Trucks a “five digit
figure” worth of lost vehicle https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/daimler-truck-ceo-says-output-could-be-five-times-higher-without-supply-chain-2022-09-19/
 production, CEO Martin Daum told Reuters. 
     
Daum said Daimler expects 60% of its sales will be electric or
fuel cell trucks by 2030. The company last week said Amazon and
German logistics group Rhenus will test Daimler’s new eActros
electric truck starting next year. https://media.daimlertruck.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=52032492&ls=L3NlYXJjaHJlc3VsdC9zZWFyY2hyZXN1bHQueGh0bWw_c2VhcmNoVHlwZT1mbGV4JnNlYXJjaFN0cmluZz1OTVNfRmxleFNlYXJjaF9DdXJyZW50TmV3cyZyZXN1bHRJbmZvVHlwZUlkPTQwNjI2JmZsZXhJbmZvVHlwZXM9NDA2MjYlMkM0MDYzMA
!!&rs=1
     
* Tesla and Germany
Tesla still plans to make batteries at its Gigafactory near
Berlin https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-german-battery-plant-land-extension-track-mayor-2022-09-19/,
 the mayor of Grunheide told Reuters. Separately, a Tesla
executive told Germany’s Automobilewoche the company expects
sales in Germany to hit 80,000 vehicles in 2022, double the
level of 2021 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-aims-double-vehicle-sales-germany-2022-automobilwoche-2022-09-18/.
     
* Automakers cut ad spending
With scant inventory to sell, automakers trimmed spending on
advertising by 4% during the first seven months of 2022 compared
with a year earlier https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/auto-industry-ad-spend-falls-48-bln-first-seven-months-2022-data-2022-09-16/.
 More than half of the $4.8 billion the industry did spend went
to digital advertising, according to Standard Media Index - not
a good trend for print magazines, television stations or
newspapers.
     
* Xpeng gets an autopilot license 
Xpeng said it has received approval to launch a semi-automated
Advanced Driver Assistance System, called City Navigation Guided
Pilot https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220918005049/en/XPeng-Debuts-City-NGP-Pilot-Program,
 in its home city of Guangzhou. City NGP’s list of functions  -
automated lane changing, detecting traffic lights, navigating
turns https://insideevs.com/news/611121/china-fsd-beta-xpeng-launches-city-ngp-pilot-program-p5-ev/
 - will sound very familiar to followers of Tesla’s Autopilot
and “Full Self Driving” technology.
     
* Ford tests smartphone-based pedestrian detection tech
Ford, T-Mobile and others are researching ways to use
smartphones and Bluetooth connections to warn motorists of
unseen pedestrians in their path https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/09/19/ford-research-tech-for-vulnerable-road-users.html.
 Pedestrian fatalities in the United States have spiked during
the past two years https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities.
     
* Diesel v. Fuel Cell parity?
Loop Energy, a hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer, said its latest
system can beat the fuel cost  https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/loop-energy-says-new-hydrogen-fuel-cell-more-efficient-than-diesel-engine-2022-09-18/per
 mile of a diesel engine at current diesel and hydrogen price
levels.
     
Fuel cell technology is having another moment. 
     
Commercial truck makers and government policy makers are
doubling down on the idea that hydrogen power systems are a
better way to replace CO2 and soot-spewing diesels than battery
electric powertrains. Signs of serious intent are popping up all
over.
     
European truck maker Iveco and Hyundai on Monday showed a
prototype of a hydrogen fueled delivery van https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/iveco-showcases-prototype-large-hydrogen-van-developed-with-hyundai-2022-09-19/.
     
Bosch plans to invest $200 million to build fuel cell systems in
South Carolina. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bosch-invest-200-mln-make-fuel-cell-stacks-south-carolina-2022-08-31/
     
Hyundai, which is pushing hard on hydrogen, just got a grant
from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to deploy five of
its fuel cell trucks to carry liquefied hydrogen https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/company/newsroom/hyundai-motor-puts-xcient-fuel-cell-electric-trucks-into-commercial-fleet-operation-in-california-0000016883
 to refueling stations operated by First Element Fuel in
California https://www.firstelementfuel.com/company.
 
     
Hydrogen-fueled trucks carrying hydrogen to fuel trucks is
somewhat meta. But you have to start somewhere.

* Essential Reading
     
Rivian’s Jim Chen takes on the car dealers https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-man-from-rivian-who-wants-to-change-how-we-buy-cars-11663387409
     
What if our EV policies are all wrong?  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-evs-cant-scale-olaf-sakkers/?trackingId=gUi7yvCPR26TycrVuKK3ZQ%3D%3D
     
In Portland, electric cargo bikers prep for the Big One  https://www.wired.com/story/when-the-big-one-hits-portland-cargo-bikers-will-save-you/