Citi says earnings risks increasing for Australia's Lottery Corp

Lottery

31/03/2026 19:58

** Citi sees downside risk to Lottery Corporation's TLC.AX 2H26 Visible Alpha consensus estimate

** Brokerage says 15% year-on-year lottery turnover growth required in 4Q26 for the lottery operator to hit 2H26 VA consensus turnover

** Brokerage expects weakening consumer environment (i.e. higher fuel and interest rates) to place further pressure on like-for-like sales

** Citi says 2H26 VA consensus EBIT for TLC appears too optimistic unless there is a highly favourable jackpot run; Citi's estimate sits ~5% below consensus

** Brokerage expects new CEO to bring strong digital and cost focus at TLC's investor day, with details provided to potentially shift the revenue and opex outlook

** Citi retains "neutral" rating and A$5.10 target price for TLC

** Nine of 14 analysts rate the stock "buy", five "hold"; their median PT is A$5.80 – LSEG data

** Stock up 4.3% this year, including the day's move

(Reporting by Sherin Sunny in Bengaluru)

((Sherin.Sunny@thomsonreuters.com))