CEE MARKETS-Zloty hits eight-month high, other currencies steady
15/12/2025 12:01
Updates with fresh zloty high, trader quote
PRAGUE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The zloty rose to an eight-month high on Monday as end-of-year trading favoured the Polish currency, while peers in central Europe steadied after falling from peaks and markets awaited clues on the outlook for Czech and Hungarian interest rates.
Globally, investors were focused on upcoming U.S. economic data this week, keeping trade cautious and seeking direction.
In central Europe, analysts expect the central banks of the Czech Republic and Hungary to keep rates on hold but will be scrutinising policymakers' comments for any indication of how long they might keep their easing cycles on pause.
Polish inflation data on Monday was revised a touch higher. Poland's central bank has been cutting rates this year - causing the zloty to underperform peers as policy stays on hold elsewhere in the region - but has signalled limited scope for further moves ahead.
The zloty EURPLN= rose a quarter of a percent on Monday, trading at 4.2175 to the euro at 1131 GMT, its strongest level since early April and moving it past the 4.22 level that has previously been a ceiling.
One trader said December was traditionally a good month for the zloty and expected further EU fund flows were also helping.
"I think that since we broke 4.22, the next stop is 4.20 probably," the trader said. "Globally, sentiment is relatively good, stock markets are in positive territory, so there's no reason for the zloty to weaken."
RATES ON HOLD
Stock markets edged higher, with Warsaw .WIG20 outperforming and gaining 1.5%. Polish footwear and fashion retailer CCC's CCCP.WA stock jumped nearly 8% after two shareholders submitted requests for the company to run buybacks.
Among currencies, the Hungarian forint and Czech crown were a touch stronger after falling from more than two-year highs since early December.
A Reuters poll on Friday showed analysts expect the Hungarian central bank to leave rates unchanged for a 15th straight month when it meets on Tuesday. The median forecast in the survey projects 50 basis points of rate easing by the end of next year.
The forint EURHUF= rose 0.1% to 385.10 per euro on Monday.
"While sequential headline and core inflation has been consistently below target for more than six months and HUF strength implies that further downside surprises to inflation are likely in the coming months, we expect (Hungary's) MNB to maintain a relatively cautious stance for now," Goldman Sachs said.
The Czech crown EURCZK= traded a touch higher at 24.288 per euro, off a peak of 24.1 hit at the start of the month.
The Czech central bank, which meets on Thursday, last cut rates in May and some analysts say they could remain unchanged for all of 2026.
| CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1231 CET | |||||
| CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
| Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.2880 | 24.2950 | +0.03% | +3.79% |
| Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 385.1000 | 385.6000 | +0.13% | +6.84% |
| Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2175 | 4.2285 | +0.26% | +1.41% |
| Romanian leu | EURRON= | 5.0928 | 5.0920 | -0.02% | -2.28% |
| Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.3400 | 117.3800 | +0.03% | -0.33% |
| Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
| Prague | .PX | 2578.61 | 2568.9400 | +0.38% | +46.50% |
| Budapest | .BUX | 110002.74 | 109607.58 | +0.36% | +38.67% |
| Warsaw | .WIG20 | 3126.69 | 3079.15 | +1.54% | +42.64% |
| Bucharest | .BETI | 23938.59 | 23939.66 | -0.00% | +43.17% |
| BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
| Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5610 | -0.0010 | +141bps | +1bps |
| Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.1700 | 0.0240 | +171bps | +4bps |
| Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.6520 | -0.0460 | +181bps | -2bps |
| Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.0420 | 0.0050 | +189bps | +2bps |
| Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.6440 | -0.0060 | +219bps | +1bps |
| Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3080 | 0.0080 | +247bps | +3bps |
| FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
| Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.58 | 3.62 | 3.66 | 3.54 |
| Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 3.76 | 3.60 | 3.57 | 4.06 |
| Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||
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