Reuters Insider - Breakingviews TV: Brexit deal

MPS

17/10/2019 18:30

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Source: Reuters Insider

Description: Oct 17 - UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has an agreement for the
country to leave the European Union. But Peter Thal Larsen explains that the
concessions he made will make striking new trade deals harder. And whether
Parliament will back his Brexit plan is too close to call.
Short Link: https://tmsnrt.rs/2qhsLyY

Video Transcript:

So, we finally have a deal for Britain to leave the European Union. Peter Thal
Larsen, you're on line with from London, will wonders never cease? I though
Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, was determined to never secure a deal? He
wanted some kind of fight, I though. What has happened? How have we secured
this fantastic deal? Tell us all.

Well, remember, we had a deal before. We had a deal almost a year ago, little
less than a year ago which Theresa May also secured in triumphant
circumstances and we then shut down-

Wow, that's two deals. Brilliant. You're right, of course, you've got a
shutdown.

Yeah, we shut down three times by Parliament in the UK. So, Boris Johnson, to
a certain extent is treading over familiar ground here. It's true that he had
said we're going to leave the European Union by the end of October, do or die,
but he did also say that he wanted a deal. It's just people thought it was
very unlikely he'd be able to secure one. And to everybody's surprise, he has
actually managed to get the EU to agree to a deal. So, that's a big step
forward. Whether he can actually get it through Parliament, though, is again
another question.

How much does he had to go back on his own words here and eat them by coming
up with this deal? I assume that he's made compromises that he wants that he
never would.

He has. I mean, his allies are saying this is a great triumph for Johnson
because the EU had repeatedly said it would never re-open the withdrawal
agreement that is signed with Theresa May last November. And also, that it
would never remove the backstop - and this is the thing that basically was
there as a kind of insurance clause in case Britain and the EU couldn't come
to a trade agreement in the future. And he has changed both those things. But
what they've actually done is they basically made the backstop - it was in the
old deal - they've made is specific to Northern Ireland and they've made it
permanent. So Northern Ireland now permanently goes into a different
arrangement with the rest of the EU from the rest of the UK. That allows them
to get a deal over the line with the EU, it also allows him to say we can do
our own trade deals in the future and take the rest of Britain in the
direction we want but it's going to be difficult for the politicians in
Northern Ireland on whom his government support depends.

That's right. I mean, he's already running basically a minority government,
got the support of the DUP right with a few seats in Northern Ireland, but
also, would probably need support of labor to get this through, because the
DUP saying we're not too happy with this. So what's the likelihood do you
think of this deal actually going through, what, Parliament is voting, when,
on Saturday?

Parliament is voting on Saturday, the first Saturday sitting for Parliament
since the Falklands War they had in 1980s which is an interesting precedent. I
think the numbers are very tight. I think it might just scrape through with
the majority but it looks quite unlikely. And as you say, if he does get it
through, it will depend on support from opposition with labor MPs, labor party
MPs who will say actually even though my party is against this, I just want it
for my own constituent which I want to be on the right side of getting Brexit
done. So he will depend on that. It looks quite unlikely at the moment.

And financially and economically, let's assume this somehow goes through, how
good or bad is this for the United Kingdom?

Well, I think this is the other factor that's weighing on the minds of those
MPs who have to make this decision on Saturday which is actually even though
this is a deal, the deal itself is not that great because what Theresa May had
signed up to which she had said, well, Britain would basically promise to
remain broadly aligned with the rest of the EU on things like employment,
legislation and environmental standards and Boris Johnson has basically
watered that down which means that this is actually going to be harder to do a
trade deal with the rest of the EU when it comes down to those negotiations.
And so, this is going to be economically tougher for the UK than the previous
deal. And so, Boris Johnson can't think that's a price worth paying to get
Britain out of the EU but others are less likely to agree with him. So, I
think, again, that makes the Parliamentary of mathematics on giving this deal
approved hard.

Great. Well, Peter, thanks for talking us through that. I'm sure we'll be
following what you write from Saturday onwards with the vote. And we'll be
back with more Breakingviews tomorrow