REG - National Grid PLC - National Grid Half Year Results - 30 Sept 2016 <Origin Href="QuoteRef">NG.L</Origin> - Part 2
10/11/2016 07:07
- Part 2: For the preceding part double click ID:nRSJ8055Oa
Board expects to return substantially all of the net proceeds to shareholders.Record
£3bn bond issuance To support the sale process, National Grid successfully undertook
significant debt financing including a £3bn bond, the largest ever sterling bond
issued by a non-financial institution and a E750m bond together at an average cost of
2.2%. Funding for the new entity is substantially complete and the new gas
distribution operating company is expected to be leveraged at 65%, in line with the
regulatory assumption. This activity was part of a liability management exercise
which also saw higher cost, sterling bonds with a carrying value of £1.9bn (and fair
market value of £2.8bn) being repurchased across National Grid Gas and National Grid
Electricity Transmission plc, resulting in an exceptional charge of £0.7bn. Overall,
the liability management exercise is value positive for the Group, with the new lower
cost debt expected to be reflected in the valuation for the Gas Distribution
business.
Solid first half for Other activitiesAfter a very strong 2015/16, boosted by strong £157mOperating Profit£100m Capital Investment
interconnector revenues and the Iroquois transaction, National Grid's portfolio of
Other activities has made a solid start to the year.
OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
In the first half of the year, National Grid delivered solid operational performance with high standards of network
availability and reliability.
The UK Electricity Transmission business maintains a relentless focus on reliability and has one of the highest levels of
reliability in Europe. During the summer, UK Gas Transmission successfully managed unseasonably high flows into Scotland,
at a time when critical compressors were out of service for planned maintenance. The business accelerated maintenance and
repair work to bring an important pipeline back online a month earlier than scheduled. The actions taken will also provide
the UK Gas Transmission network with a higher level of resilience heading into the winter.
In August, the US Regulated business responded effectively when its New York service territory experienced a severe storm
that cut power to more than 50,000 customers, with service restored in one day. Effective storm response process remains a
focus and the Group believes it is well prepared for the challenges in the coming winter.
The Group targets world class safety performance, measured as a lost time injury frequency rate of 0.10 or better for both
directly employed staff and contractors (i.e. less than 0.1 lost time injuries per 100,000 hours worked in a 12-month
period) and after the first six months is on track to achieve this target again at the full year. National Grid remains
focused on maintaining and improving this good level of performance going into the winter period and as workload increases
across all businesses.
Focused on efficiency
In the UK, the focus remains on delivering totex efficiencies. Electricity Transmission has made good progress with
innovation to reduce both the time and cost to repair or replace assets. An example of this is its transformer replacement
activity, where it has challenged industry standard practices, changed engineering design and revised procurement
approaches. Over the remaining years of RIIO-T1 price control this new approach is expected to save around £140m delivering
important savings for the business and customers. National Grid's electricity system operator is at the forefront of
industry changes, and recently awarded battery storage contracts for the provision of grid balancing services through the
Enhanced Frequency Response initiative. It is anticipated that this will deliver around £200m of savings over the four
years of the programme, driving lower costs for customers. The 200MW of enhanced frequency response were procured at less
than half the cost of the alternative, Firm Frequency Response.
The US Regulated business also continues with its drive for efficiency to keep costs down and help offset the impacts of
inflation, ahead of new rates coming into effect. For example, in Massachusetts, the gas distribution business has changed
the way it is deploying and utilising its crews to repair gas leaks, resulting in unit cost reductions of up to 15% and
enabling the business to repair more leaks each week. In New York, the introduction of new technologies such as robotics is
supporting reductions in pipeline replacement costs. Through the Neighbourhood Expansion Program, in New York, the business
now has greater flexibility to convert whole communities from oil to gas, reducing installation costs, and potentially
saving customers and communities millions of dollars in future energy costs.
Regulatory developments
On 18 August 2016, Ofgem announced its "minded to" position for the Mid-Period Review (MPR) for the RIIO-T1 price control.
The areas covered by the MPR related to specific outputs with 8-year allowances in Gas Transmission and Electricity
Transmission. Ofgem proposed some adjustment to allowances with changes expected to take effect from April 2018.
Ofgem continues to consult on the introduction of Onshore Competition for electricity transmission. National Grid remains
supportive of competition where it is in the interests of consumers and is working to ensure that the costs, benefits and
risks of competition are properly understood in relation to any proposals on a case by case basis. In its role as
electricity system operator, National Grid is assisting Ofgem in developing the competitive regime in the interests of
consumers and chairs an Electricity Networks Association facilitated working group to develop an early tendering model, as
part of its overall contribution to the process.
National Grid continues to work closely with the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and Ofgem to
consider how to evolve the role of the electricity system operator in order to meet the needs of the changing energy
market. In doing so the Group believes it is vital that there is no disruption to the pivotal role National Grid plays as
system operator in balancing the network.
In the US, in addition to the Massachusetts Electric and KEDNY/KEDLI rate updates already discussed, National Grid received
an order in May 2016 approving its request for a two year capital investment programme for $1.3bn across the Niagara Mohawk
electricity and gas businesses over two years. The programme was funded through the use of deferred credits to provide
incremental US GAAP revenues to National Grid with no immediate impact on customer bills.
National Grid expects to make full rate filings for the Niagara Mohawk gas and electric businesses and the Massachusetts
gas businesses in calendar year 2017 and is currently considering filing a full rate case for Rhode Island in late 2017 or
early 2018. Once complete, around 90% of National Grid's US business will be operating under new agreements which will
support its drive to achieve returns as close as possible to the allowed level.
Solid contribution from Other activities
National Grid's diverse portfolio of Other activities made a solid start to the year, compared with the very strong
performance in the first half of 2015/16.
In April 2016, National Grid reached an agreement with Ofgem to progressively share a proportion of its French
Interconnector (IFA) business profits, net of capital expenditure, with UK customers. This reflects the fact that the
business has now fully recovered the cost of building the interconnector. The agreement also allows National Grid to make
further investment so IFA can continue to play its important role.
In August, National Grid's Property business completed the first sale of a site, at Battersea, to the St William joint
venture.
GROWTH
Balanced portfolio to deliver asset growth and sustainable dividend
National Grid believes that it can deliver best value to shareholders through maintaining a portfolio of businesses with
strong operational performance alongside attractive annual asset growth of around 5-7% assuming long-run average UK RPI
inflation of 3%. Following completion of a sale of a majority interest in UK Gas Distribution, the Group's portfolio of
businesses is expected to deliver higher growth, while maintaining a strong balance sheet that allows the Group to continue
to fund its investment programme and maintain the policy of increasing dividend per share by at least RPI for the
foreseeable future.
£2.2bn of capital investment, balanced across the UK and US
National Grid continued to make significant investment in energy infrastructure in the first six months of 2016/17. Capital
investment across the Group was £2,150m, an increase of £126m or 6% at constant currency compared to the first half of
2015/16.
Six months ended 30 September
(£m) 2016 2015 % change
UK Electricity Transmission 586 514 14
UK Gas Transmission 116 91 27
UK Gas Distribution 268 286 (6)
US Regulated 1,039 901** 15
Other activities* 141 127** 11
Group capital investment 2,150 1,919 12
* Other activities capital investment includes investment in joint ventures, excluding £5m and £55m equity contribution to
St William property joint venture for 2016 and 2015, respectively
** 2015 capital investment adjusted for reclassification between US Regulated and Other activities (£32m)
The UK regulated businesses invested almost £1bn in the first half of 2016/17, with Electricity Transmission and Gas
Transmission both ramping up asset health activity to meet their respective regulatory requirements, or Network Output
Measures. Gas Transmission investment also increased as a large pipeline replacement project under the Humber estuary
(Feeder 9) moved towards construction, while UK Gas Distribution invested £268m and delivered close to 900km (circa 560
miles) of mains replacement in the period.
The US Regulated business has again increased its level of investment with further leak prone pipe replacement, customer
growth and continued levels of investment in electricity system reinforcement to improve the safety and reliability of
networks. This sustained level of investment was a key feature of the updated regulatory filings in Massachusetts Electric
and the downstate New York gas businesses KEDNY and KEDLI. Moving forward, capital investment is expected to feature
prominently in the new rate filings planned for 2017 and will support strong levels of growth in the rate base.
FINANCIAL STRENGTH
Over £4.5bn of new long-term financing
After another period of significant investment in new assets, National Grid's balance sheet remains robust, with strong
investment grade credit ratings from Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch.
During the past six months, National Grid has raised over £4.5bn of new long-term financing in the capital markets for both
its UK and US businesses. National Grid Gas Finance plc, the financing company for the new UK gas distribution business,
issued a record breaking £3bn sterling bond across four tranches in September, as well as a E750m euro-bond.
This activity was part of a liability management exercise which also saw higher cost, sterling bonds with a carrying value
of £1.9bn (and fair market value of £2.8bn) being repurchased across National Grid Gas and National Grid Electricity
Transmission plc, resulting in an exceptional charge of £718m.
The Group also continued to draw the £1.5bn RPI-linked, European Investment Bank (EIB) loan to fund capital investment in
its UK Electricity Transmission business.
In August, the US operating companies KeySpan Gas East (also known as KEDLI) and Massachusetts Electric issued $700m and
$500m respectively of new long-term debt.
Over the last 12 months, National Grid has also agreed around $750m of new financing, including $520m since April, in the
form of senior unsecured credit loans with the Swedish and Italian Export Credit Agencies (ECA). The Group has procured
this financing in relation to its share of investment in the North Sea Link interconnector. This innovative source of
funding provided attractively priced funding from a new source of liquidity for the Group and is the largest ever Power
Infrastructure ECA financing into the UK.
Interim dividend of 15.17p, increased in line with policy
The Board has approved an interim dividend of 15.17p per ordinary share ($0.9427) per American Depositary Share). This
represents 35% of the total dividend per share in respect of the last financial year 2015/16 and is in line with the Group
dividend policy. The interim dividend is expected to be paid on 11 January 2017 to shareholders on the register as at 25
November 2016. A scrip dividend alternative will be offered for this interim dividend.
The Group's dividend policy is to grow the ordinary dividend per share at least in line with the rate of RPI inflation each
year for the foreseeable future.
The 2016/17 interim dividend of 15.17p represents a 0.17p (1.1%) increase over the interim dividend for the year ended 31
March 2016 of 15.00p. It is expected that the final dividend paid next August in respect of the year ending 31 March 2017
will reflect the remaining monetary value of the percentage increase for the year as a whole on a per share basis. The
total dividend in respect of the year ended 31 March 2016 was 43.34p per ordinary share.
Scrip dividend
The scrip dividend programme remains on offer and is an efficient means for many investors to reinvest cash dividends in
National Grid shares and can provide balance sheet support during a period of higher asset growth.
BOARD CHANGES
As previously announced, Nicola Shaw joined the Board of National Grid as Executive Director, UK on 1 July 2016. On 22 July
2016, Steve Holliday retired from National Grid and ceased to be a Director of the company.
OUTLOOK
Overall Group performance is anticipated to remain in line with the expectations set out at the full year results in May
2016.
In the UK, performance is expected to remain broadly at the level seen last year. In the US, return on equity will be
reported on a fiscal year basis moving forward and is expected to be around 8% this fiscal year, with some benefit from the
new rate cases in Massachusetts and New York. Interconnector profitability within Other activities has, as expected,
reverted to more normal levels and thus National Grid does not expect to repeat the very strong level of performance seen
in Other activities in 2015/16.
Capital investment is expected to increase compared to 2015/16, driven by gas distribution in the US and asset health
investments in the UK, together with further investment in electricity interconnector activities.
The process for the sale of a majority interest in the UK Gas Distribution business is on track for completion in early
2017 and significant progress has been made on separation activities.
The Board believes that National Grid is in a strong position to continue to deliver a safe and reliable service to
customers, while sustaining its level of investment and continuing the Group's commitment to the dividend policy for the
foreseeable future.
2016/17 TECHNICAL GUIDANCE
The outlook and technical guidance contained in this statement should be reviewed, together with the forward looking
statements set out in this release, in the context of the cautionary statement. It is prepared on the basis of the Group as
currently structured.
UK Electricity Transmission
Net Revenue (excluding timing) is expected to increase, with approximately £60m of additional allowances compared to
2015/16 reflecting allowed base revenue and inflationary increases being partly offset by 'MOD' adjustments 2 .
Totex outperformance is expected to reduce in 2016/17, as a result return on equity is expected to be slightly lower than
2015/16.
UK Gas Transmission
Net Revenue (excluding timing) is expected to increase, with approximately £50m of additional allowances compared to
2015/16 reflecting an allowed base revenue increase, a small 'MOD' increase for data centre allowances and inflationary
increases.
Totex and incentive performance combined is expected to be lower against prior year, with increased spend on asset health
projects to deliver regulatory output requirements. Additional allowances are expected to be lower year-on-year as legacy
recoveries reduce. As a result, return on equity is expected to be lower compared with 2015/16.
UK Gas Distribution
Net Revenue is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year, with RPI increases offset by the reduction in 'fast money'
allowances (repex treatment transition from fast to slow 'pot') in base revenues.
Good Totex outperformance and good incentive performance is expected to be sustained year-on-year. As a result, achieved
return on equity is expected to be marginally higher than the prior year.
UK Timing
Headline net revenues will be impacted by timing of recoveries from prior years. Both Electricity and Gas Transmission will
benefit from collection of under-recoveries created in 2014/15 whilst Gas Distribution is expected to pay back
over-recoveries from 2014/15.
US Regulated operations
Revenue is expected to increase in 2016/17, largely from new rate case fillings and capex trackers. Bad debt expenses are
expected to decrease. These benefits are expected to be broadly offset by inflationary pressure on controllable costs,
increased depreciation and cost of removal expenses (reflecting significant capital investment) and higher property taxes.
Return on equity for overall US regulated operations, which will be reported on a fiscal year basis going forward, is
expected to be around 8% for fiscal year 2016/17.
Other activities
Revenue is expected to fall year-on-year, mainly due to lower auction revenues in the French Interconnector and fewer
domestic meters in the Metering business as the smart metering roll-out gradually gathers pace. Profits from the Property
business are expected to be similar year-on-year.
Earnings before interest and tax, the gain of £49m on exchange of National Grid's interest in the Iroquois Pipeline for
shares in Dominion Midstream Partners, LP was a one-time event in 2015/16.
Interest and Taxation
Net finance costs for the Group in 2016/17 are expected to be higher than those in 2015/16 driven by foreign exchange
movements, higher RPI accretions and higher gross borrowings, partially offset by the refinancing of debt at low prevailing
interest rates.
For the full year 2016/17, the effective tax rate is expected to be to be around 24%.
Investment, Growth and Net Debt
Overall Group capital investment for 2016/17 is expected to increase compared to 2015/16. Anticipated UK increases in asset
health spend should be partially offset by lower expected spend on Western HVDC Link and London Power Tunnels, as the
projects near completion. In the US Regulated operations, investment is expected to increase primarily driven by higher
expenditure on mains replacement, system reinforcements and customer growth.
Depreciation is expected to increase, reflecting the impact of continued high levels of capital investment.
Cash generated from operations is expected to decrease, reflecting the large working capital inflows in 2015/16,
particularly in the US.
Net debt at 30 September 2016 was £29.2bn and is expected to be at a similar level at the end of March 2017, excluding the
effect of any exchange rate movements and UK Gas Distribution sale related cash flows.
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Unless otherwise stated, all financial commentaries in this release are given on an adjusted basis at actual exchange
rates. For definitions and metrics see pages 22 to 23 of this statement.
Six months ended 30 September
Operating profit
(£m) 2016 2015 % change
UK Electricity Transmission 697 610 14
UK Gas Transmission 159 159 0
UK Gas Distribution 403 428 (6)
US Regulated 435 351 24
Other activities 157 288 (45)
Group total operating profit 1,851 1,836 1
Operating profit excluding timing
(£m) 2016 2015 % change
UK Electricity Transmission 610 577 6
UK Gas Transmission 115 108 6
UK Gas Distribution 427 433 (1)
US Regulated 441 453 (3)
Other activities 157 288 (45)
Group total operating profit excluding timing 1,750 1,859 (6)
Other selected financial information
(£m) 2016 2015 % change
Depreciation and amortisation (865) (796) (9)
Net finance costs (523) (493) (6)
Taxation excluding timing (276) (327) 16
Taxation (295) (302) 2
Share of post-tax results of joint ventures 31 28 11
Non controlling interest 2 2 0
Earnings attributable to equity shareholders excluding timing 980 1,065 (8)
Earnings per share excluding timing (p) 26.0 28.2 (8)
Earnings attributable to equity shareholders 1,062 1,067 0
Earnings per share (p) 28.2 28.2 0
Other selected financial information
(£m) - constant currency 2016 2015 % change
US Regulated operating profit 435 389 12
Other activities operating profit 157 293 (46)
Group total operating profit 1,851 1,879 (1)
Timing adjustment (101) 34
Operating profit excluding timing 1,750 1,913 (9)
Depreciation and amortisation (865) (827) (5)
Net finance costs (523) (527) 1
Operating profit and controllable costs
Operating profit was £1,851m, up £15m (up 1%) on the same period last year at actual exchange rates. The period on period
movement in exchange rates had a £43m positive impact on operating profit. On a constant currency basis, operating profit
was down £28m (down 1%).
This included a positive year-on-year timing movement of £135m:
Six months ended 30 SeptemberOver/(under)-recovery
(£m) - constant currency 2016 2015 % change
Balance at start of the period (restated) 36* 23 57
In-year over/(under)-recovery 101 (34)
Balance at end of period 137 (11)
Operating profit 1,851 1,879 (1)
Adjust for timing differences (101) 34
Operating profit excluding timing 1,750 1,913 (9)
*restated to reflect finalisation of UK and US timing balances
Operating profit excluding timing decreased by £163m (down 9%) on a constant currency basis.
Operating profit from regulated activities decreased by £27m on a constant currency basis, excluding the impact of timing.
Net regulated income increased by £98m, due to US revenue growth from existing rate plans and gas customer growth and
increases in UK regulated revenues. Regulated controllable costs increased by £52m while post-retirement costs decreased by
£1m and bad debts decreased by £6m. Depreciation and amortisation increased by £30m and other costs by £50m.
The Group's Other activities contributed £136m less to operating profit this year on a constant currency basis. This was
led by decreased revenues in the French Interconnector business, as it returns to more normal levels of profitability this
year compared to the strong profits in the prior year, and the non-recurrence of a prior year £53m gain (at constant
currency) on the exchange of National Grid's share of the Iroquois pipeline joint venture for shares in Dominion Midstream
Partners, LP.
Interest
Net finance costs at £523m, were £30m higher than the same period in 2015/16 at actual exchange rates and £4m lower than
2015/16 at constant currency with the benefit of one off insurance gains and lower pension interest offset by higher
accretions on index linked borrowings and the impact of increased debt levels.
The effective interest rate on Treasury managed debt for the period was 3.9% compared with 3.7% in the first six months of
2015/16.
Profit before tax and taxation
The Group's share of post-tax results from joint ventures and associates at £31m, was up £3m from the same period in
2015/16, reflecting an increased contribution from the BritNed interconnector.
Profit before tax was down 1% at actual exchange rates to £1,359m. Excluding the impact of timing, profit before tax was
down 10% to £1,258m.
The tax on profits was £295m, £7m lower than the same period last year, reflecting a lower level of profit before tax. The
reported effective tax rate decreased to 21.7% compared to 22.0% in the previous year reflecting a lower proportion of US
profit before tax.
Other earnings metrics, EPS, exceptional and statutory earnings
Earnings attributable to non-controlling interests (minority interests) were £2m, in line with the same period last year.
As a result, earnings attributable to equity shareholders were £1,062m, down £5m compared with the same period in 2015/16.
Adjusted Earnings per share remained constant at 28.2p (prior year result restated for the impact of shares issued under
the scrip dividend programme).
Excluding the impact of timing, earnings attributable to equity shareholders were £980m, down £85m compared with the same
period in 2015/16, and earnings per share decreased by 8% year-on-year to 26.0p.
Exceptional items and remeasurements reduced statutory earnings by £558m after tax. A detailed breakdown of these items can
be found on page 34. After these items and non-controlling interests, statutory earnings attributable to equity
shareholders were £504m.
Statutory basic earnings per share were 13.4p compared with 27.7p (restated) for the same period in the prior year. The
decrease (compared to the consistent level of adjusted EPS) included a large exceptional item relating to debt redemption
costs recognised in the first half of 2016/17.
Cash flow
Cash generated from operations, before exceptional items, remeasurements and taxation was £2,324m, £357m lower than
2015/16, principally reflecting the collection of lower receivables balances in the current period due to the recent
relatively mild winter experienced in the US.
Funding and net debt
Net debt as at 30 September 2016 was £29.2bn, £3.9bn higher than at 31 March 2016 (£25.3bn) largely reflecting the impact
of weaker sterling. A rate of $1.44/£1 at 31 March 2016 moving to a rate of $1.30/£1 at 30 September 2016 increased debt by
approximately £1.8bn, with further increase in debt from buy back activity of £0.7bn.
Pensions and other post - retirement obligations
The IAS 19 net pension position at 30 September 2016 was a deficit of £3.6bn compared with £2.6bn at 31 March 2016. The
increase reflects the fall in the discount rate used to value the liabilities which fell by 1.1% to 2.2% in the UK, and
reduced from 4.3% to 3.9% in the US. This was partly offset by asset growth.
This contrasts with the deficit as measured on an actuarial basis which has remained relatively stable since 31 March 2016.
The discount rate used for the trustee funding basis moves in line with changes to gilt yields, whereas the discount rate
used for the IAS 19 disclosures reflects corporate bond yields. Investment strategies and hedging measures are designed to
offset the impact of falling gilt yields (rather than movements in corporate bond yields).
BUSINESS REVIEW
Six months ended 30 September
(£m, at actual exchange rate) AdjustedOperating profit Capital Investment
2016 2015 2016 2015
UK Electricity Transmission 697 610 586 514
UK Gas Transmission 159 159 116 91
UK Gas Distribution 403 428 268 286
US Regulated 435 351 1,039 901**
Other activities* 157 288 141 127**
Total Group 1,851 1,836 2,150 1,919
* Other activities capital investment includes investment in joint ventures, excluding £5m and £55m equity contribution to
St William property joint venture for 2016 and 2015, respectively
** 2015 capital investment adjusted for reclassification between US Regulated and Other activities (£32m)
UK ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION
Operating profit in UK Electricity Transmission was £697m, up £87m for the first six months of the year compared to the
same period in the prior year, including favourable timing movements of £54m. Excluding the impact of timing, operating
profit was £33m higher reflecting increased net revenues due to RPI and higher base allowances. Controllable costs were
lower, which was partially offset by higher depreciation reflecting the high levels of capital investment.
Capital investment of £586m was, £72m higher than the prior period. This reflects increased spending on non-load related
investments including circuit breaker projects, overhead lines, transformers and IS projects to ensure the business meets
its RIIO outputs.
Overall investment in the year reflected £334m of non-load related investment whilst load related investment was £252m.
The UK Electricity Transmission business expects to deliver its regulatory outputs for the year for a level of totex below
the associated regulatory allowance. This mainly reflects continued delivery of efficiencies in the capital programme and
non-load related maintenance activities. For example, for transformer replacement activity the business has challenged
industry standard practices, changed its engineering design and revised its procurement approaches to deliver important
savings for customers.
Following a very strong performance in 2015/16, totex incentive performance is expected to be slightly lower this year.
Totex for the first half of the year was approximately £720m compared to around £650m in the first half of 2015/16.
On 23 August 2016, Ofgem announced that it would allow National Grid to directly recover approximately half of the
additional costs of procuring Black Start capability with Drax and Fiddler's Ferry. The remainder of the cost increase will
be included within the Balancing Services Incentive Scheme (BSIS), where National Grid retains 30% of the benefit of cost
savings up to a cap of £30m a year. Under these arrangements, National Grid's 'share' of the additional Black Start costs
would be limited to £18m, which would be set against any outperformance in the current year, up to the level of the cap.
Performance in BSIS in the first six months has been strong and the business remains on track to deliver incentive
performance at least in line with the prior year.
On 18 August 2016, Ofgem announced its "minded to" position for the MPR for the RIIO-T1 price control. As expected, the
scope of this MPR was narrow with no change to key financial parameters of the framework.
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