Column: Zinc's turn to feel the squeeze as LME stocks evaporate: Andy Home
24/06/2022 14:03
By Andy Home
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc
stocks have been raided this week, leaving available inventory
close to depletion.
The zinc price is unimpressed, LME three-month metal CMZN
sliding on Friday to a fresh 2022 low of $3,361 per tonne in
tandem with the broader sell-off across the metals spectrum.
But that masks an explosion in time-spread tightness, the
cash premium over three-month delivery CMZN0-3 spiking to $218
per tonne on Thursday, the widest it's been this century.
It's an unwelcome development for the exchange after it had
to suspend the nickel contract in March when a similar run on
stocks caused a price melt-up. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N2VB20G
There is a safety net this time around. The LME has imposed
lending limits and allowed for deferred delivery across all its
major contracts.
Moreover, this zinc squeeze is firmly rooted in the physical
supply chain. Indeed, it's part of the resolution of that
underlying tightness.
GOING, GOING...
LME headline zinc stocks were already low coming into this
week at 79,425 tonnes.
They're about to get a lot lower. The last four days have
seen 48,575 tonnes cancelled in preparation for physical
load-out. That leaves available live tonnage at just 14,975
tonnes, equivalent to a few hours worth of global consumption in
a 14-million tonne market-place.
This is an acceleration of a long-running downtrend in LME
zinc stocks. This time last year there were 258,000 tonnes
sitting in LME-registered sheds and another 85,800 tonnes in
off-warrant storage.
Those shadow stocks have also largely gone, totalling a
meagre 3,224 tonnes at the end of April, according to the LME's
most recent report.
All of that shadow tonnage was located at Asian locations.
And so too is registered inventory. There is a single lot (25
tonnes) of available zinc in Europe - at the Spanish port of
Bilbao - and none at all at U.S. locations.
Which tells you where the physical supply chain is tightest.
SMELTER DISRUPTION
It's turning out to be a bad year for zinc smelters.
Europe's energy crunch has already caused the curtailment of
Glencore's GLEN.L 100,000-tonne-per-year Portovesme smelter in
Italy with other operators flexing run-rates around peak energy
periods.
The region accounts for around 12% of global refined zinc
output and the rolling disruption to supply has been reflected
in record physical premiums of up to $500 per tonne over LME
cash.
The U.S. market has not grabbed the same headlines but
physical buyers are paying even more to get their metal,
Fastmarkets assessing the Midwest premium at 38-50 cents per lb
($970 per tonne at the mid-point) earlier this month.
Although exacerbated by high freight costs, the high premium
is also down to sliding regional smelter output.
Hudbay Minerals' HBM.TO Flin Flon smelter, one of three
Canadian refined metal producers, is being fully retired this
quarter as the "777" feeder mine closes https://hudbayminerals.com/news-media/default.aspx#2022#Hudbay-Announces-Completion-of-Mining-Activities-at-777-after-18-years-of-Steady-Production
after 18 years operation.
The plant has been winding down for some time, last year's
production falling to 90,000 tonnes from 112,000 in 2020.
The loss of supply has been compounded by lower output at a
second Canadian smelter. Noranda Income Fund NIF_u.TO has
downgraded its production guidance https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/08/2419542/0/en/Noranda-Income-Fund-Provides-Production-Update-Revises-2022-Production-Target.html
for the year by 15,000 tonnes citing "operational challenges"
in the first quarter.
South American smelter supply has also been misfiring. Nexa
Resources NEXA.N reported first-quarter output of 48,700
tonnes at its two Brazilian smelters, down from 58,700 in the
preceding quarter due to a lack of feed.
Smelting is turning out to be a major bottleneck in the zinc
supply chain this year.
Global mine production rose by one percent in the first four
months of this year but refined production was two percent
lower, according to the latest assessment from the International
Lead and Zinc Study Group. It estimates refined zinc supply fell
13,000 tonnes short of supply in the period. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2YA4PV
CHINA THE SUPPLIER OF LAST RESORT
The good news for beleaguered zinc buyers is that help is
sailing over the horizon from China.
The country has been a steady importer of zinc in refined
form since it imposed a 15% duty on exports in 2008.
However, such is the call on metal from the rest of the
world that it is now switching to net exporter. March's outbound
shipments of 35,546 tonnes were the highest monthly tally since
2007.
Cumulative exports of 53,500 tonnes over January-May have
already exceeded combined volumes over 2020 and 2021.
The less good news for everyone else is that this metal is
only travelling as far as Taiwan, the destination for 25,750
tonnes of last month's exports, and Singapore, the destination
for another 7,400 tonnes.
Both are LME good-delivery locations and it's noticeable
that the only fresh inflows of zinc in the exchange's global
warehouse system have been at the Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung,
which has received almost 30,000 tonnes since the start of May.
VIA THE LME
The problem is that is not where the metal is most needed,
necessitating, it seems, a second leg of stocks cancellation and
onward shipment to either the United States or Europe.
In other times it's likely that what left China would have
headed directly to the location of maximum premium but, against
a backdrop of clogged ports and still high freight costs, zinc
exports are being channelled to the closest LME delivery
destination.
The LME is in fact functioning as it's supposed to as a
market of last resort, albeit one with a marked geographic kink.
That's not going to make day-to-day trading conditions any
easier as long as on-warrant stocks, the ultimate physical
liquidity pool for LME settlement, remain at these depleted
levels.
How quickly they can rebuild depends on how fast China can
ship out surplus zinc relative to how long it takes to refill a
depleted supply chain in the rest of the world.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LME zinc stocks at multi-year low, cash premium at multi-year
high https://tmsnrt.rs/3xO5cwZ
China turns on the zinc export taps https://tmsnrt.rs/3A5K9Zp
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(Editing by David Evans)
((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com, 44-207-542-4412 and on Twitter
https://twitter.com/AndyHomeMetals))