Live Markets: When do markets start to really worry?

Nordex SE

27/04/2026 10:41

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STOXX 600 up 0.1%

Iran offers proposals for reopening Hormuz

Crude rises after talks postponed

U.S. futures flat

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WHEN DO MARKETS START TO REALLY WORRY?

Global equity markets .MIWO00000PUS have been remarkably resilient since the start of the war in the Middle East, hitting a new record earlier this month before a small wobble last week.

A lot of people are questioning why stocks have been so strong when energy supplies have been severely disrupted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Prior to the war, the Strait accounted for about 20% of global oil and gas supply, not to mention various other important chemicals.

But Paul Jackson, Invesco's global market strategist in EMEA, is looking at things in a positive light, for now.

First of all, he said there are other options for exporting oil from the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia's cross-country pipeline to the Red Sea, and other pipelines in places such as the UAE and Iraq that can divert away from the Strait.

"We've not lost 20% of supply," Jackson said.

Secondly, Jackson noted that countries have reserves that they can use to fill supply shortages in the near-term, which he believes will keep things ticking over until the end of June.

Beyond that, there are risks to the inflation and growth outlook, but he believes both sides will want an end to the war, particularly the U.S. with midterm elections coming up later this year.

"I presume there are sufficient incentives that this will not carry on into the second half of the year, and I think that's why markets are behaving the way they are," said Jackson.

"In general, they are justified in behaving that way. They are justified in having a limited impact, especially bearing in mind that if you do have a big impact it's usually a good buying signal and everyone has got used to that."

(Samuel Indyk)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

RECENT DOLLAR BULLISHNESS STARTING TO WAVER CLICK HERE

STEADY START CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES HOLDING STEADY CLICK HERE

HORMUZ AND HYPERSCALERS CLICK HERE

SK Hynix reports record quarterly operating profit https://www.reuters.com/graphics/SK%20HYNIX-RESULTS/byprnblwzpe/chart.png

Steady start after weekend Iran news https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-STOCKS/zdvxgjznepx/chart.png

Japan yen positioning Japan yen positioning https://www.reuters.com/graphics/JAPAN-FOREX/JAPAN-FOREX/akveyjkagvr/Pasted%20image%201777273139309.png