RBC cuts Norsk Hydro to 'sector perform' as aluminium surplus looms

Norsk Hydro ASA

16/09/2026 07:06

** RBC downgrades Norwegian aluminium producer Norsk Hydro NHY.OL to "sector perform" from "outperform", saying faster Middle East supply recovery and new capacity elsewhere are weakening the aluminium outlook
** The broker expects the aluminium market to swing from a roughly 400,000-ton deficit in 2026 to a 1-million-ton surplus in 2027, versus its previous forecast for an 800,000-ton deficit
** Gulf smelters are restarting faster than expected, while European restarts and additional capacity in Indonesia and China are adding to supply, RBC says
** It expects most Middle East smelters to be back at full capacity by H2 2027
** The broker cuts its aluminium price forecasts by 6% for 2026, 14% for 2027 and 20% for 2028, and its FY26-28 EBITDA estimates by 15% and adjusted EPS estimates by 26% for Hydro
** RBC says Hydro's low-cost position leaves it relatively insulated from an approaching aluminium surplus, but sees risk/reward as balanced at current levels
** Out of 20 analysts that cover Norsk Hydro, six rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy",​ 10 "hold" and five "strong sell" or "sell" - LSEG data

(Reporting by Jesus Calero)
((jesus.calero@thomsonreuters.com))