Novo Nordisk’s obesity feast lacks a second course

Novo Nordisk A/S

23/09/2026 11:34

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
By Aimee Donnellan
DUBLIN, Sept 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Novo Nordisk's NOVOb.CO platter of goodies will still leave investors hungry for more. On Monday, Mike Doustdar, CEO of the $174 billion weight loss drug maker, laid out plans to replace revenues as its star obesity and diabetes treatments lose patent protection in the US in 2031. But the combination of declining sales in its core business and increasing competition means investors may have to get used to a measly helping of growth.
On the face of it, Doustdar appears ambitious. He is planning to launch five blockbuster medications, drugs that generate over $1 billion in annual sales, by 2030 and deliver sales from his pipeline of experimental drugs of over 150 billion Danish crowns ($23 billion) by 2035. The strategy rests on a wave of new weight loss tablets, and improved combinations of diabetes and obesity treatments which aim to have better weight loss and fewer side effects. He also hopes to branch out into areas like blood and endocrine disorders.
But Novo faces two looming problems. Starting in 2031, it loses US patent protection on semaglutide, the active ingredient in both its diabetes treatment Ozempic and its obesity medication Wegovy. These two blockbusters, known as GLP-1s, are expected to generate nearly 70% of Novo Nordisk's sales this year, according to Visible Alpha. Analysts reckon that revenue from these treatments will decline by on average 6% annually through 2035. Now, assume generously that all Novo's pipeline of new drugs come good, and revenue would creep up to 409 billion Danish crowns in that same year, per Visible Alpha. That's an annual revenue growth rate of around 3%, less than half of what arch rival Eli Lilly LLY.N is expected to deliver in the same period.
As well as the risk of a disappointing drug trial, Doustdar will also have to contend with an increasingly competitive obesity market. Novo has already lost ground to Eli Lilly, which is now worth $1.1 trillion, whose similar GLP-1s offer more drastic weight loss. The US drugmaker's CEO David Ricks said on Monday, the day of Novo Nordisk’s capital markets event, that 70% of new patients taking GLP-1 medications under the government-funded Medicare programme were taking Eli Lilly medications. He is also planning to unleash newer drugs that deal with the side effects like vomiting and other gastric issues that are a driving force behind some 50% of patients abandoning GLP-1s after a year. 
Rivals are also piling in. This week alone, Roche ROPC.S unveiled data that showed overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes lowered their blood sugar levels and lost an average 15.5% of their body weight on the Swiss group’s experimental drug. Similarly, US-listed Viking Therapeutics VKTX.O released favourable data and Pfizer PFE.N is hoping to launch its weight loss treatment in 2028. 
The 8% decline in Novo’s shares on Monday suggests Doustdar's plan has done little to reassure investors that Novo, which once dominated the market, can regain its former obesity glory. The company is now trading on just 12 times forward earnings, less than half Eli Lilly's multiple, and below the sector average of around 15, per Visible Alpha data. Doustdar's bold plans still do not amount to a very appetising meal.
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($1 = 6.5455 Danish crowns)
     
CONTEXT NEWS
Novo Nordisk said on September 21 it aims to launch more than five blockbuster drugs by 2030 and to deliver more than 150 billion Danish crowns ($23 billion) in pipeline sales in 2035.
On September 22 the company told Reuters that weight-loss pills could capture as much as ​half of the global obesity drug market by 2030.
Shares in Novo Nordisk fell 8% following the announcement of its targets on September 21.

(Editing by Neil Unmack; Production by Varun H K)
((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on DONNELLAN/Aimee.Donnellan@thomsonreuters.com))