Postal operators: Jefferies sees 2021 slowdown after pandemic-led record peak

Oesterreichische Post AG

05/02/2021 11:01

** Jefferies expects the exceptional parcel volumes and
e-commerce growth to slow down in 2021 as "the positive impact
of the COVID-19 pandemic" gradually fades after a record Q4 peak
    ** Broker raises its full-year 2020 and 2021 postal EBIT
estimates by 16% for 2020, bringing its 2021 average EBIT
forecast down to 4%, assuming trends normalise
    ** It upgrades PostNL  PTNL.AS  to "buy" from "hold",
raising its FCF forecast by 65% for 2021, citing
better-than-expected cash conversion following strict capital
allocation
    ** Jefferies says PostNL's capital allocation drives a 40%
dividend forecasts hike with a yield of 8%, above sector average
    ** "PostNL now has the highest exposure to parcels,
generating 65% of EBIT, and has likely seen the worst in terms
of mail volume decline," it adds
    ** Jefferies reiterates its "buy" rating on Deutsche Post
DHL  DPWGn.DE  and bpost  BPOST.BR , as well as "underperform"
rating on Austrian Post  POST.VI  and Royal Mail  RMG.L  
    ** PostNL shares rise over 4% to their highest since 2018,
while Deutsche Post rises over 2% and the others trade
relatively flat

 ((Olivier.cherfan@thomsonreuters.com))