Live Markets: Barclays goes 30% above the Street on energy earnings

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31/03/2026 11:37

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BARCLAYS GOES 30% ABOVE THE STREET ON ENERGY EARNINGS

European integrated energy companies are heading for a sharp earnings rebound, as Middle East disruption drives oil and gas prices higher, while also boosting refining margins and trading returns.

The conflict in Iran has tightened oil markets faster than expected, Barclays says, shifting the debate from surplus to potential physical shortages.

Against this backdrop, Barclays expects sector earnings to surge more than 40% in the first quarter versus the previous one, making the UK bank one of the most bullish on the Street.

"Our updated estimates are 30% ahead of consensus for FY26" say analysts led by Lydia Rainforth. The biggest gaps are at BP BP.L, where their net income estimates are 44% above consensus, Shell SHEL.L at +37% and Norway's Equinor EQNR.OL.

Despite possible production impacts for companies with assets in the region – including BP, Shell, TotalEnergies TTEF.PA, Eni ENI.MI and OMV OMVV.VI – higher commodity prices should more than compensate, Barclays says.

With cash break-evens around $41 per barrel and valuations still below long-term averages, Barclays argues the sector remains attractive even after the strong run.

"We expect the price assumption to be adjusted upwards when the first quarter results are released, implying further upside to cash flow in FY26."

(Danilo Masoni)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL POSES LIMITED THREAT TO EUROPEAN MEDTECH, RBC SAYS CLICK HERE

POSTPONED DOLLAR WEAKNESS CLICK HERE

A SHARPER US TREASURY SELLOFF IN TOKYO CLICK HERE

STOXX 600 HEADS FOR BIGGEST MONTHLY FALL SINCE JUNE 2022 CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES HIGHER ON IRAN DE-ESCALATION SIGNS CLICK HERE

SOME RESPITE FOR NERVY MARKETS AFTER BRUTAL MONTH CLICK HERE

European integrate energy_Barclays vs consensus https://tmsnrt.rs/4m48tRB