Updates Goldman Sachs GDP forecast
April 22 (Reuters) - Analysts expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to weaken global economic growth, fuel volatility in markets and raise inflationary pressures.
Last week, Jefferies slashed its S&P 500 annual target .SPX to 5,300, the lowest on Wall Street, from its previous forecast of 6,000, while Citigroup cut its benchmark index target to 5,800 from 6,500.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage
S&P 500 target
U.S. 10-year yield target
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CNY
UBS Global Research
6400
4.25%
1.12
150
7.60
Goldman Sachs
5700
4.4%
1.02 (next 12 months)
152 (next 12 months)
7.35 (next 12 months)
UBS Global Wealth Management
5800
4.00%
1.12
145
7.50
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
5900-6100
4.00%-4.50%
0.98-1.02
158-162
Societe Generale
6750
4.50% (Q4'25)
1.09
146.3
7.28
Deutsche Bank
7000
4.65% (Q4'25)
1.10
145
7.35
Nomura
4.15%
1.03
135
6.93
Morgan Stanley
6500
4% (Q4'25)
1.08 (Q4'25)
141 (Q4'25)
7.60 (Q4'25)
J.P.Morgan
6500
4.10% (Q3'25)
1.14 (Q4'25)
140 (Q4'25)
7.60
BofA Global Research
5600
4.25%
1.15
165
7.30
Wells Fargo
3.96%
0.98 (Q4'25)
154 (Q4'25)
7.60 (Q4'25)
BMO Capital Markets
6100
Jefferies
5300
4.43%
Barclays
5900
4.00% (Q4'25)
1.06 (Q4'25)
144 (Q4'25)
7.50 (Q4'25)
Piper Sandler
6600
Berenberg
4.90%
1.10
140
7.30
BNP Paribas
4.65% (Q4'25)
1.00 (Q4'25)
156 (Q4'25)
Canaccord Genuity
6325
Citigroup
5800
4.20% (Q4'25)
1.05
139
ING
1.02
160
7.35
HSBC
6700
Evercore ISI
6800
Peel Hunt
4.20%
1.11 (Q4'25)
RBC Capital Markets
5550
4%
Oppenheimer Asset Management
5950
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage
Headline CPI
Core PCE
Goldman Sachs
3.4%
3.5%
J.P.Morgan
3.7%
4.4%
Morgan Stanley
3.0%
2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Barclays
3.1%
2.5%
Wells Fargo
2.8%
2.8%
Societe Generale
2.3%
2.5%
Deutsche Bank
3.4%
3.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
3.5%
UBS Global Wealth Management
2.6%
Citigroup
2.7%
2.6%
BofA Global Research
2.9%
2.3% (Q4/Q4)
Berenberg
2.9%
2.6%
BNP Paribas
2.3%
Nomura
3.0%
3.3%
ING
2.4%
Jefferies
2.3%
2.5%
UBS Global Research
2.7%
Peel Hunt
3.2%
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage
GLOBAL
U.S.
CHINA
EURO AREA
UK
INDIA
UBS Global Research
3.0%
2.0%
4.0%
0.5%
0.7%
6% (FY26)
Goldman Sachs
2.5%
0.5%
4.0%
0.7%
0.95%
6.1%
Barclays
2.9%
1.5%
4.3%
0.7%
0.7%
7.0%
Morgan Stanley
2.9%
2.1%
4.5%
0.8%
1.4%
6.5%
J.P.Morgan
2.4%
1.0%
4.3%
0.8%
0.7%
6.0%
UBS Global Wealth Management
2.9%
1.9%
4.0%
0.9%
1.5%
6.3%
Wells Fargo
2.7%
1.3%
4.5%
0.9%
0.8%
5.9%
Societe Generale
3.3%
2.2%
4.7%
1.0%
1.6%
Citigroup
2.3%
1.4%
4.2%
0.8%
2.0%
6.7%
Nomura
2.8%
1.4%
4.5%
0.8%
0.8%
5.9%
BofA Global Research
3.1%
2.1%
4.5%
0.9%
1.4%
6.6%
Deutsche Bank
2.9%
1.7% (Q4/Q4)
4.5%
0.5%
0.8%
6.5%
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
2.1%
1.0%
0.9%
Berenberg
2.8%
2.6%
5.0%
1.0%
0.9%
6.5%
BNP Paribas
2.1%
4.5%
1.0%
1.1%
6.2% (March 2026)
Peel Hunt
1.5%
4.5%
0.9%
1.1%
6.3%
ING
2.0%
4.6%
0.7%
1.4%
Jefferies
2.4% (Q4/Q4)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target https://reut.rs/4fY5JjZ
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich, Shounak Dasgupta, Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri and David Gregorio)
((Siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
