Jefferies cuts Australia's Origin PT on Kraken markdown

Origin Energy

01/02/2026 21:33

** Jefferies lowers PT on Origin Energy ORG.AX primarily driven by the lower valuation of Kraken Technologies

** Cuts price target to A$12.87 from A$13.23, primarily driven by lower valuation of Kraken to $11.1 bln from $12 bln on foreign‑exchange movements; Keeps 'Buy' rating

** Jefferies says that despite the business delivering solid operational results, its EBITDA forecasts for FY26 - 28 have been trimmed by an avg of 4.6%

** Flags headwinds from softer electricity prices, with a stronger AUD further weighing on APLNG earnings and trimming the valuation of UK-based Octopus

** However, adds that it remains positive on ORG at current levels, given the strength of its core businesses, with Octopus offering a compelling growth option

** In December, Octopus Energy said it would spin off its Kraken tech arm as an independent company valued at $8.65 billion, while ORG separately announced a $140  million investment that will keep its stake at 22.7% in the platform

** Stock up 2.7% this year as of last close

 (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru)

 ((Tanishk.Kumar@thomsonreuters.com; X: @thatstanishk http://www.x.com/thatstanishk;))