Jefferies hikes Orion to 'buy' on better Nubeqa sales forecast

Orion Oyj

25/09/2024 07:05

** Jefferies raises the Finnish drugmaker Orion  ORNBV.HE 
to "buy" from "hold" driven by the increased estimates for peak
sales of its prostate cancer drug Nubeqa 
    ** Broker hikes its peak sales estimate for Nubequa, which
was developed jointly by Orion and Bayer  BAYGn.DE , to EUR 1.3
billion ($1.46 billion) from EUR 750 million, assuming 27%
royalty rate paid by Bayer on in-market peak sales of over EUR
4.7 billion by 2030 
    ** This follows Bayer's Head of Pharma's comments that
Nubeqa has the potential to be its best-selling product, and
positive doctor feedback, broker says
    ** Jefferies expects Nubeqa to drive consensus EPS upgrades
and increase headroom for Orion to pay bigger dividends while
lowering the pay-out ratio, with flexibility to materially raise
the dividend from 2026
    ** The broker adds the phase 3 for another prostate cancer
drug, opevesostat (ODM-208), could potentially replenish Orion's
portfolio post-loss of Nubeqa exclusivity in 2033
    ** It notes opevesostat could sustain Orion's growth into
the 2030s, with the forecasted EUR 1.1 billion unrisked peak
sales paid by Merck  MRK.N 





($1 = 0.8933 euros)

 (Reporting by Agata Rybska)
 ((gdansk.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com;))