US natgas prices climb 4% to 10-week high on lower output, higher demand (updated)

OSAKA GAS

18/06/2025 19:49

Hot weather to boost power generator gas burns

End of LNG plant maintenance to boost LNG feedgas

Energy firms add 95 bcf of gas to storage last week

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 18 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a 10-week high on Wednesday on a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly storage build, lower daily output and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

That heat should prompt homes and businesses to crank up their air conditioners, pushing power generators to burn more gas to produce electricity to keep those air conditioners humming.

Analysts said that heat would likely come at the same time some liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants exit maintenance, which should further boost demand for gas to feed those export plants.

Gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 13.8 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $3.989 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 3 for a second day in a row.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended June 13.

That was a little smaller than the 98-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average of 72 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

The EIA released the latest storage report on Wednesday, a day earlier than usual, due to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday on Thursday, June 19.

For seven weeks in a row up until the week ended June 6, energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage, tying the seven-week triple-digit injection record set in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states edged up to 105.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May. That remained below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance earlier in the month.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by around 2.6 bcfd to a two-week low of 103.8 bcfd on Wednesday, down from a seven-week high of 106.4 bcfd on Sunday. That compares with an all-time daily high of 107.5 bcfd on April 18.

With hotter summer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.3 bcfd this week to 102.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.0 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28, June 3 and June 17.

Energy traders said they expect maintenance to continue through late-June at Sabine, which has been pulling about 3.0 bcfd of gas since the end of May. That figure compares with average feedgas of 4.5 bcfd during the month of May.

Week ended Jun 13 Actual
Week ended Jun 6 Actual
Year ago Jun 13
Five-year average
Jun 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+95
+109
+72
+72
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,802
2,707
3,035
2,640
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.1%
+5.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.85
3.85
2.81
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
13.43
13.32
10.87
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
14.01
13.59
12.30
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
7
8
8
8
9
U.S. GFS CDDs
214
210
216
177
167
U.S. GFS TDDs
221
218
224
185
176
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
105.4
105.6
105.8
102.2
96.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.0
7.8
7.3
N/A
7.3
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
113.3
113.4
1131
N/A
104.1
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
1.6
1.6
1.5
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.5
7.5
7.5
N/A
6.3
U.S. LNG Exports
13.7
13.8
14.3
12.6
9.1
U.S. Commercial
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.8
U.S. Residential
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.3
U.S. Power Plant
38.2
38.7
41.3
40.5
38.0
U.S. Industrial
22.1
22.2
22.3
21.6
21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
76.0
76.5
79.3
75.3
76.8
Total U.S. Demand
98.8
99.3
102.7
N/A
88.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
79
79
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
79
79
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
81
81
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jun 20
Week ended Jun 13
2024
2023
2022
Wind
8
9
11
10
11
Solar
8
8
5
4
3
Hydro
6
6
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
41
41
42
41
38
Coal
17
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
18
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.89
2.90
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.61
2.08
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.58
3.04
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.40
1.95
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.73
2.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.75
2.24
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.64
3.44
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.20
1.77
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.01
0.71
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
43.15
35.95
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
54.01
48.88
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
37.23
32.79
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
47.34
35.00
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
30.34
25.30


 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Alexandra Hudson, Nia Williams and Chizu Nomiyama)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

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NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C