US natgas prices drop 5% to 2-week low on milder weather forecasts (updated)

OSAKA GAS

10/10/2025 18:41

March-April futures spread hits record low, indicating supply confidence

Milder weather forecasts reduce heating demand

LNG export feedgas on track to hit monthly record high

Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 10 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Friday to a two-week low, on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mild weather that should keep heating and cooling demand low over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16.3 cents, or 5.0%, to settle at $3.106 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 26.

For the week, the contract fell about 7%. Last week, it jumped about 17%.

Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies for the winter, with the premium of futures for March over April 2026 NGH26-J26 on track to fall to a record low of around 10 cents per mmBtu.

        The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.

Traders use the March-April and October-November NGV26-X26 spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter-heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 25.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 100.6 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week before rising to 103.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 16.1 bcfd so far in October from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary eight-week high of 16.5 bcfd even though Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland remained shut for planned maintenance.

Analysts noted LNG feedgas was near record highs as new units entered service at Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas.

In other LNG news, BP BP.L won its arbitration case against Venture Global over the U.S. supplier's failure to deliver LNG under a long-term contract that was due to start in late 2022.

Week ended Oct 10 Forecast
Week ended Oct 3 Actual
Year ago Oct 10
Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+75
+80
+77
+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,716
3,641
3,695
3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.2%
+4.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.18
3.27
2.58
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.82
10.98
12.89
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.08
11.12
13.35
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
111
116
89
105
135
U.S. GFS CDDs
52
54
59
58
38
U.S. GFS TDDs
163
170
148
163
173
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
107.3
106.4
106.1
101.7
98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.8
6.9
7.1
N/A
7.4
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
114.2
113.3
113.2
N/A
105.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2.4
2.3
N/A
2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.8
6.5
6.7
N/A
6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.2
16.2
16.7
12.6
11.3
U.S. Commercial
4.9
5.3
6.0
5.4
6.9
U.S. Residential
4.0
4.8
6.3
4.9
7.1
U.S. Power Plant
38.4
35.9
32.6
36.6
31.7
U.S. Industrial
21.9
22.1
22.3
22.1
22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
76.6
75.5
74.6
76.4
76.3
Total U.S. Demand
101.6
100.6
100.3
N/A
95.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025
% of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
93
93
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
87
87
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
88
88
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Oct 10
Week ended Oct 3
2024
2023
2022
Wind
10
8
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
42
44
42
41
38
Coal
18
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
17
18
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.25
3.35
2.19
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.74
1.91
1.64
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.83
3.87
3.72
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.68
1.71
1.53
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.88
3.01
2.01
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.88
2.25
1.80
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.55
3.58
2.60
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.23
-0.51
0.59
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.95
0.63
0.77
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
33.53
35.43
40.14
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
45.48
51.90
41.96
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
36.12
46.67
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
33.25
53.59
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
32.23
41.27


 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))