US natgas prices ease on big storage build, low flows to LNG export plants (updated)

OSAKA GAS

05/06/2025 15:32

Last week's storage build biggest since October 2022

Gas stockpiles now about 5% above normal

LNG export feedgas down in May and June due to maintenance

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage build and lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants over the past month or so.

That price decline came despite weeks of lower output and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.9 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $3.677 per million British thermal units.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 122 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 30, which boosted total inventories to around 5% above the five-year (2020-2024) average.

        That injection topped the 111-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 94 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 98 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

The increase also hit a lot of milestones. It was the biggest weekly storage build since October 2022, according to EIA data, and was the seventh week in a row that energy firms added more gas into storage than usual. It was also the first time weekly injections topped 100 bcf for six weeks in a row since June 2019.

Another factor keeping pressure on futures prices in recent weeks has been low cash prices. Next-day prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana were around $2.80 per mmBtu. Spot contracts have traded below front-month futures every day since late April.

Analysts have said that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures NGc1 to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March.

Energy traders said output reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines. Energy firms usually work on gas pipes and other equipment in the spring and autumn when demand for the fuel for heating and cooling is low.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.5 bcfd this week to 97.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 13.5 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.

Energy traders have noted that LNG maintenance would likely continue through early- to mid-June at Cameron and late-June at Sabine. Analysts said prices could spike higher in late June when demand for gas rises as those LNG plants return to full service and power generators start burning more gas to meet higher summer air conditioning demand.

Week ended May 30 Actual
Week ended May 23 Actual
Year ago May 30
Five-year average
May 30
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+122
+101
+94
+98
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
2,598
2,476
2,886
2,481
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.7%
+3.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.67
3.72
2.81
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
12.16
11.83
10.87
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
12.37
12.33
12.30
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
9
10
10
18
19
U.S. GFS CDDs
170
169
160
143
138
U.S. GFS TDDs
179
179
170
161
157
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
105.4
104.4
104.2
101.2
96.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.0
7.5
7.2
N/A
7.3
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
113.4
111.9
111.4
N/A
104.1
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
1.6
1.7
1.7
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.4
7.4
7.3
N/A
6.3
U.S. LNG Exports
15.1
13.4
14.4
13.2
9.1
U.S. Commercial
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.8
U.S. Residential
4.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
4.3
U.S. Power Plant
31.6
34.7
36.6
37.0
38.0
U.S. Industrial
22.4
22.3
22.1
21.6
21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
71.0
73.0
74.3
74.1
76.8
Total U.S. Demand
95.0
95.5
97.7
N/A
88.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
79
80
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
80
81
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
81
82
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jun 6
Week ended May 30
2024
2023
2022
Wind
11
10
11
10
11
Solar
8
8
5
4
3
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
39
42
41
38
Coal
15
15
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
19
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.80
2.84
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.15
2.01
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.35
3.15
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.98
1.98
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.77
2.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.35
3.43
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.63
3.38
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.59
1.30
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.62
0.10
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
56.74
46.68
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
49.77
45.94
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
50.26
44.94
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
40.11
40.87
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
24.03
22.76


 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Nia Williams)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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