US natgas prices ease to two-week low on ample storage and mild weather

OSAKA GAS

13/10/2025 15:04

March-April futures spread hits record low, indicating supply confidence

Cove Point LNG export plant back in service

Waha Hub prices fall below zero again due to pipeline maintenance

LNG export feedgas on track to hit monthly record high

Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a two-week low on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for milder weather than previously expected over the next two weeks that should keep heating and cooling demand low.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since September 26 for a second day in a row.

Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies in storage for the winter, with the premium of futures for March over April 2026 NGH26-J26 on track to fall to a record low of around 9 cents per mmBtu.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell back into negative territory for an eighth time this month as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

That was the 21st time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.38 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 28.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 99.7 bcfd this week to 100.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.3 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas rose to a six-month high of 17.0 bcfd on Sunday after Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland exited a planned maintenance outage.

That was the highest amount of daily LNG feedgas since gas flows hit a record 17.3 bcfd on April 9.

Week ended Oct 10 Forecast
Week ended Oct 3 Actual
Year ago Oct 10
Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+75
+80
+77
+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,716
3,641
3,695
3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.2%
+4.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.06
3.11
2.58
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.73
10.87
12.89
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.06
11.08
13.35
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
103
111
108
137
147
U.S. GFS CDDs
47
52
45
44
34
U.S. GFS TDDs
150
163
153
181
181
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
106.5
106.3
106.8
101.9
98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada
6.9
7.2
7.2
N/A
7.4
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
113.4
113.5
114.0
N/A
105.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4
2.4
2.3
N/A
2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
6.5
6.6
N/A
6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.1
16.7
16.8
13.9
11.3
U.S. Commercial
5.3
5.9
6.4
7.0
6.9
U.S. Residential
4.9
6.2
7.0
8.1
7.1
U.S. Power Plant
35.8
32.5
31.6
33.6
31.7
U.S. Industrial
22.2
22.3
22.5
22.8
22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
75.5
74.2
75.1
78.9
76.3
Total U.S. Demand
100.7
99.7
100.9
N/A
95.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025
% of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
92
93
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
89
87
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
89
88
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Oct 17
Week ended Oct 10
2024
2023
2022
Wind
13
10
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
4
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
42
42
41
38
Coal
17
18
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
17
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.90
3.25
2.19
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.49
1.74
1.64
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.56
3.83
3.72
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.28
1.68
1.53
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.70
2.88
2.01
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.63
1.88
1.80
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.84
3.55
2.60
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-1.56
1.23
0.59
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.86
0.95
0.77
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
33.53
33.53
40.14
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
57.65
45.48
41.96
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
47.66
36.12
55.48
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
24.83
33.25
45.83
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
26.47
32.23
35.86
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Joe Bavier)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))