US natgas prices edge up to 2-week high on hot forecasts, near record LNG flows

OSAKA GAS

16/07/2025 14:36

NHC sees 40% chance of Gulf of Mexico storm over next week

Weather to remain hotter than normal through late July

Power and gas prices soar in New England heat wave

By Scott DiSavino

July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a two-week high on Wednesday as hot weather boosts the amount of gas power generators must burn to keep air conditioners humming and on near record flows of gas to LNG export plants.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.6 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.559 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since June 27 for a second day in a row.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said a tropical system off the west coast of Florida has about a 40% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Analysts have noted that tropical storms in the Gulf can knock some gas production out of service, but also noted that only about 2% of all U.S. gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico.

The analysts said storms were more likely to be demand-destroying events that can reduce the amount of gas power generators burn by leaving millions of homes and businesses without electricity and cutting gas exports by shutting Gulf Coast LNG export plants.

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would mostly remain hotter than normal through at least July 31 with the hottest days of the summer expected next week.

Temperatures across the country will average around 81 degrees Fahrenheit (27.2 Celsius) on July 24, topping this summer's current hottest day of 80 F on June 24 but falling short of the daily average record high of 83 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2018.

In New England, extreme heat caused energy prices to spike as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners, forcing power companies to burn more gas to produce electricity. Spot gas NG-CG-BS-SNL prices soared by 61% to $12.50 per mmBtu, their highest since February, while next-day power E-NEPLMHP-IDX prices jumped by 46% to a three-week high of around $184 per megawatt hour.

Temperatures in Boston, the biggest city in New England, will reach 91 F on Wednesday before falling to 86 F on Thursday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. The normal high in the city is 82 F at this time of year.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 106.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 109.8 bcfd this week to 107.6 bcfd next week.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Week ended Jul 11 Forecast
Week ended Jul 4 Actual
Year ago Jul 11
Five-year average
Jul 11
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+45
+53
+18
+41
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,051
3,006
3,208
2,874
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.2%
+6.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.53
3.52
2.21
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
11.82
11.72
10.32
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
12.30
13.12
12.32
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
4
3
3
3
3
U.S. GFS CDDs
235
237
218
213
202
U.S. GFS TDDs
239
240
221
216
205
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
106.5
107.2
107.0
103.3
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.2
8.4
7.9
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
114.7
115.6
114.8
N/A
105.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.0
2.0
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.0
6.8
6.6
N/A
6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
15.2
15.4
15.2
11.1
10.0
U.S. Commercial
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
U.S. Power Plant
45.2
47.7
45.9
49.0
48.1
U.S. Industrial
22.2
22.2
22.3
21.8
21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
82.9
85.6
83.8
86.4
86.9
Total U.S. Demand
107.1
109.8
107.6
N/A
99.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
77
77
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
79
79
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
80
80
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jul 18
Week ended Jul 11
2024
2023
2022
Wind
5
7
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
45
44
42
41
38
Coal
19
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
17
17
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.31
3.21
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.48
3.20
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.71
3.70
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.94
2.74
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.13
3.11
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
12.50
7.76
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.84
3.94
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.76
1.63
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.58
0.67
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
184.37
126.65
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
88.16
78.03
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
72.96
58.68
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
53.42
51.67
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
38.80
36.45


text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))