US natgas prices fall 5% on lower LNG feedgas, tariff delays (updated)
04/02/2025 13:03
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Soaring spot gas prices in Alberta boost power prices in US Northwest
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Canada supplies about 9% of US gas
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US gas output hit daily record high on Jan. 31
(Adds latest prices)
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Tuesday as less gas flows to the nation's liquefied natural
gas (LNG) export plants and after President Donald Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
That tariff suspension reduced futures prices because roughly 9% of the gas consumed in the United States comes from Canada,
and higher tariffs would have boosted the cost of that fuel.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to $3.177 per
million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:05 a.m. EST (1305 GMT).
In the spot market, uncertainty about the tariffs on Monday boosted gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta by
over 70% to $3.68 per mmBtu, their highest since January 2024. That Canadian gas spike sent next-day power prices at the Mid
Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon soaring by more than 124% to a near five-month high of around $235 per megawatt hour.
The Pacific Northwest is heavily dependent on gas supplies from Canada. About two-thirds of the gas used in Oregon comes from
Canada, according to state data and local media reports. In 2024, gas-fired plants generated about 38% of the power in Oregon.
Most of the rest - about 41% - came from hydropower dams, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The United States consumed a record 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas in 2024. About 8.4 bcfd, or roughly 9%, of
that fuel came from Canada, according to the EIA. That compares with U.S. imports from Canada of around 8.0 bcfd in 2023 and an
average of 7.5 bcfd during the prior five years (2018-2022).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7
bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production, according to LSEG data. That
compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall by around 1.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 105.1 bcfd
on Tuesday, down from a daily record high of 106.6 bcfd on Jan. 31. The prior all-time high was 106.4 bcfd in January 2024.
After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record
amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022,
according to federal energy data. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from warmer than normal through Feb. 8 to mostly colder
than normal from Feb. 9-19.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 123.8
bcfd this week to 132.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in February, up from
14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to 14.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a reduction in flows to
Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana.
Flows to Sabine were on track to drop to a 13-week low of 4.1 bcfd on Tuesday, down from 4.6 bcfd on Monday and an average of
4.9 bcfd over the prior seven days.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jan 31 Jan 24 Jan 31 average
Forecast Actual Jan 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -172 -321 -110 -174
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,399 2,571 2,605 2,508
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -4.3% -4.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average 2024 Average
(2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.22 3.35 1.80 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 15.76 16.29 8.12 10.95 15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 14.41 14.44 8.93 11.89 15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 405 389 342 413 410
U.S. GFS CDDs 11 11 3 6 5
U.S. GFS TDDs 416 400 345 419 415
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2020-2024)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.9 106.2 105.6 105.7 95.8
U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 9.6 9.7 N/A 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 114.1 115.8 115.3 N/A 104.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.5 3.5 N/A 2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.7 6.0 N/A 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 12.9 13.8 13.7 13.3 11.3
U.S. Commercial 17.7 15.0 17.0 13.8 15.9
U.S. Residential 30.2 24.3 28.4 22.3 26.4
U.S. Power Plant 33.1 28.7 30.3 31.0 30.0
U.S. Industrial 25.6 24.7 25.6 24.4 25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 115.0 100.8 109.5 102.7 106.7
Total U.S. Demand 137.2 123.8 132.7 N/A 125.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
(Fiscal year ending Sep 30) Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual
Forecast Forecast
Apr-Sep 85 85 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 81 81 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 83 84 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended 2024 2023 2022
Feb 7 Jan 31
Wind 14 12 11 10 11
Solar 5 4 5 4 3
Hydro 5 5 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 37 39 42 41 38
Coal 17 20 16 17 21
Nuclear 21 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.30 2.93
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.01 2.89
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.78 3.46
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.06 2.69
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.14 2.75
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 18.50 12.00
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.90 3.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 2.14 1.27
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 2.55 1.49
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 139.80 116.63
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 39.83 36.35
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 234.75 104.51
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 33.70 35.47
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 30.00 39.10
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))