US natgas prices jump 6% to 25-month high on frozen wells, record LNG flows (updated)
21/02/2025 14:22
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Freezing wells cut US output in recent days
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US gas output on track for possible record high in February
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US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
(Adds latest prices)
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 25-month high on Friday as extreme cold over the past
couple of weeks cut output by freezing wells and as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants hit record highs.
In addition, traders noted that colder temperatures than normal so far this year forced utilities to pull huge amounts of gas
out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles down to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal
for this time of year EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 23.7 cents, or 5.7%, to $4.389 per
million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:25 a.m. EST (1425 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since
December 2022.
That kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a fourth day in a row for the first time since October 2024.
For the week, the contract was up about 16%, rising for a third week in a row for the first time since November and gaining
around 43% during that time.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so
far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That
compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to
drop by around 6.7 bcfd since hitting a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a preliminary four-week low of 100.0 bcfd on
Friday. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through March 8.
With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 148.4
bcfd this week to 127.9 bcfd next week and 122.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's
outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from
14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a record 16.5 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of
16.4 bcfd on Wednesday.
The LNG daily feedgas record occurred as flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under
construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd from Wednesday to Friday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand
for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $14
at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, which some analysts say could free up some Russian
energy exports, the European Union said it will seek more gas from countries including the U.S. to replace Russian supplies, and
expand renewable energy faster to cut its overall reliance on the fuel.
The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Feb 21 Feb 14 Feb 21 average
Forecast Actual Feb 21
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -248 -196 -86 -141
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,853 2,101 2,401 2,078
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -10.8% -5.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2024 (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1 4.25 4.15 1.80 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 14.62 14.65 8.12 10.95 15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 14.25 14.12 8.93 11.89 15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 356 376 301 358 354
U.S. GFS CDDs 6 6 8 8 7
U.S. GFS TDDs 362 382 309 366 363
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2020-2024)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 105.3 102.9 101.7 104.8 95.8
U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 11.1 8.6 N/A 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 115.6 114.1 110.3 N/A 104.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.4 2.5 2.3 N/A 2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 6.0 6.0 N/A 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 14.2 14.4 14.9 13.6 11.3
U.S. Commercial 17.7 20.7 15.4 14.2 15.9
U.S. Residential 29.8 35.4 24.9 22.9 26.4
U.S. Power Plant 33.6 34.0 31.2 33.2 30.0
U.S. Industrial 25.9 27.0 25.2 24.7 25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 3.3 2.8 3.1 4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 115.4 125.6 104.7 103.4 106.7
Total U.S. Demand 138.8 148.4 127.9 N/A 125.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
(Fiscal year ending Sep 30) Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual
Forecast Forecast
Apr-Sep 86 86 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 84 84 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 85 85 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended 2024 2023 2022
Feb 21 Feb 14
Wind 12 11 11 10 11
Solar 4 3 5 4 3
Hydro 6 6 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 38 40 42 41 38
Coal 22 20 16 17 21
Nuclear 17 19 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 5.62 7.15
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 6.07 11.11
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.90 4.25
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 6.59 8.05
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 6.14 7.75
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 16.05 18.50
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 4.47 4.60
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 4.30 4.32
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 1.37 1.41
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 142.20 166.76
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 75.40 109.91
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 46.29 51.25
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 24.38 37.30
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 21.95 29.83
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((mailto:scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:
rm://scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))