US natural gas prices climb 2% on record flows to LNG export plants

OSAKA GAS

03/03/2025 14:43

US gas output hits record high in February

US LNG export feedgas hits record high in February

Output and LNG export feedgas on track to hit new records in March

By Scott DiSavino

March 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 8.4 cents, or 2.2%, to $3.918 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:19 a.m. EST (1419 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 14.

The price increase occurred despite record output and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the middle of March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks.

Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

With prices down about 9% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange for the second time in 12 weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 18.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 119.3 bcfd this week to 114.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Feb 28 Forecast
Week ended Feb 21 Actual
Year ago Feb 28
Five-year average
Feb 28
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-97
-261
-56
-94
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,743
1,840
2,345
1,984
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-12.1%
-11.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.86
3.83
1.75
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
14.00
13.52
8.54
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
13.85
13.99
8.95
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
287
286
209
306
313
U.S. GFS CDDs
7
7
16
13
10
U.S. GFS TDDs
294
293
225
319
313
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
104.1
105.9
105.4
101.8
97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.7
9.6
9.4
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
113.9
115.5
114.9
N/A
105.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
4.0
4.0
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
5.5
5.7
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Exports
15.9
15.6
15.2
13.3
11.8
U.S. Commercial
14.3
13.7
12.8
10.2
11.8
U.S. Residential
23.0
21.7
20.4
15.2
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
30.9
26.4
24.7
30.3
27.5
U.S. Industrial
24.8
24.6
24.2
23.4
23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.7
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
101.1
94.2
89.9
87.0
90.1
Total U.S. Demand
126.8
119.3
114.7
N/A
110.6
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
85
85
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
83
82
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
84
84
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 7
Week ended Feb 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
12
13
11
10
11
Solar
7
6
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
35
42
41
38
Coal
16
18
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.91
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.44
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.77
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.39
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.52
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.26
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.11
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.12
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
108.33
45.84
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
53.47
36.87
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
35.00
38.10
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
23.35
15.56
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
11.88
2.88


text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))