US natural gas prices ease to 2-week low on record output, negative Waha prices

OSAKA GAS

17/03/2025 13:34

Spot gas prices at Waha Hub in Texas turn negative

US gas output on track to hit record high in March

US LNG export feed gas on track to hit record high in March

By Scott DiSavino

March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the start of April, which should keep the amount of gas utilities pull from storage to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since February 28.

That futures price decline occurred despite record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.

In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the first time since November 2024 due to pipeline maintenance that was trapping gas associated with oil production in the basin.

Traders talked of maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's GKM.N El Paso Natural Gas pipe from Texas, New Mexico and Colorado to California and Arizona and WhiteWater, MPLX MPLX.N and Enbridge's ENB.TO Whistler pipeline from West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

With gas futures down about 7% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for a second time in three weeks to the lowest since late February, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 1.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.2 bcfd this week to 107.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 14 Forecast
Week ended Mar 7 Actual
Year ago Mar 14
Five-year average
Mar 14
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-19
-62
+5
-31
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,679
1,698
2,331
1,897
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-11.5
-11.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.18
4.10
1.75
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
13.23
13.44
8.54
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
13.64
13.67
8.95
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
229
222
255
246
252
U.S. GFS CDDs
18
17
10
20
16
U.S. GFS TDDs
247
239
265
266
268
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
105.7
106.2
105.6
101.6
97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.1
8.9
9.4
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
114.7
115.0
115.0
N/A
105.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
4.1
4.1
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.2
5.9
6.2
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Exports
15.5
16.1
15.8
13.1
11.8
U.S. Commercial
11.2
10.4
10.6
11.9
11.8
U.S. Residential
17.2
15.8
15.5
17.7
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
25.9
23.9
24.1
30.8
27.5
U.S. Industrial
23.7
23.5
23.8
24.5
23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
85.6
81.1
81.6
92.7
90.1
Total U.S. Demand
111.1
107.2
107.7
N/A
110.6
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
93
93
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
90
90
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
91
91
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 21
Week ended Mar 14
2024
2023
2022
Wind
20
15
11
10
11
Solar
5
7
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
32
34
42
41
38
Coal
13
16
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.89
3.89
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.79
3.33
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.70
3.71
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.72
3.17
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.20
3.26
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
3.00
3.42
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.82
3.94
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-0.79
0.33
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.62
1.55
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
41.07
51.39
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
45.70
46.84
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
38.10
39.57
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
23.88
18.71
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
24.53
25.00


text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSE terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSE terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SOL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SOL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: EMPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))