US natural gas prices hold near 26-month high ahead of storage report

OSAKA GAS

06/03/2025 14:32

US gas output on track to hit record high in March

US LNG export feedgas on track to match February record high

Oil-to-gas ratio falls to lowest since December 2022

By Scott DiSavino

March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a 26-month high on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal report expected to show last week's storage withdrawal was near normal for this time of year.

Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4.

In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 0.6 cents, or 0.1%, to $4.444 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:33 a.m. EST (1333 GMT). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest price since December 2022 for a second day in a row.

Prices are up about 14% so far this week despite near-record output and forecasts for mostly mild weather through mid-March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage over the next week or two.

Analysts projected utilities pulled 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28. That compares with declines of 56 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 94 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Extreme cold weather earlier this year forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, leaving current stockpiles about 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline by 2.4 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary one-week low of 104.5 bcfd on Thursday, down from a three-week high of 106.9 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 107.2 on February 6.

In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.2 bcfd over the past few days since Trump's tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11 days (February 21-March 3), according to LSEG data.

That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly warmer than normal from March 6-15 to mostly colder than normal from March 16-21.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 119.2 bcfd this week to 111.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

Week ended Feb 28 Forecast
Week ended Feb 21 Actual
Year ago Feb 28
Five-year average
Feb 28
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-92
-261
-56
-94
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,748
1,840
2,345
1,984
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-11.9%
-11.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.38
4.45
1.75
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
12.64
12.97
8.54
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
13.73
13.83
8.95
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
280
282
209
306
300
U.S. GFS CDDs
8
7
16
13
11
U.S. GFS TDDs
288
289
225
319
311
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
104.1
105.9
105.7
101.8
97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.7
9.2
9.2
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
113.9
115.1
114.9
N/A
105.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
3.8
3.7
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.1
6.0
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Exports
15.9
15.6
15.6
13.3
11.8
U.S. Commercial
14.3
13.6
11.8
10.2
11.8
U.S. Residential
23.0
21.6
18.3
15.2
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
30.9
26.1
24.2
30.3
27.5
U.S. Industrial
24.8
24.6
23.9
23.4
23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
101.1
93.7
85.7
87.0
90.1
Total U.S. Demand
126.8
119.2
111.0
N/A
110.6
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
85
84
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
84
82
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
85
84
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 7
Week ended Feb 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
14
13
11
10
11
Solar
6
6
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
35
42
41
38
Coal
16
18
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.40
4.39
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
4.00
3.95
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.25
4.07
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.87
3.83
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
4.19
4.05
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.31
4.23
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.27
4.10
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.38
1.81
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.35
1.36
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
46.92
52.17
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
50.00
43.78
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
52.50
53.92
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
39.42
52.13
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
34.75
42.92


text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))