US natural gas prices jump 10% on colder weather forecasts, tariff worries (updated)
03/02/2025 15:59
(Adds latest prices)
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Trump tariffs on Canada, China set to start on Tuesday
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Canada exported about 9% of gas consumed in US in 2024
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Speculators boost net longs for eighth week in a row
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 10% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week and worries about supplies from Canada related to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Trump said on Saturday he planned to impose tariffs on the three largest U.S. trading partners on Tuesday, with 25% duties being slapped on most imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% duty on those from China. On Monday, the U.S. and Mexico reached a deal to delay the tariffs on Mexico for one month.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 30.9 cents, or 10.2%, to $3.353 per million British thermal units at 1:12 p.m. EST (1812 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest price since Dec. 4 for a second day in a row.
That pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory and would be the biggest daily percentage gain since Dec. 30, when prices jumped about 12%.
Speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchange for an eighth week in a row to the highest level since September 2021, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
In 2024, about 9%, or roughly 8.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), of gas consumed in the U.S. came from Canada, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That compares with average U.S. imports from Canada of around 7.6 bcfd during the prior five years (2019-2023).
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.5 in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to slide by around 0.7 bcfd over the past three days to 105.4 bcfd on Monday, down from an 11-month high of 106.1 bcfd on Friday. That compares with a daily all-time high of 106.4 bcfd in January 2024.
After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022, according to federal energy data. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through Feb. 8, before turning mostly colder than normal from Feb. 9-18.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.1 bcfd this week to 133.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants has risen to an average of 15.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas held near a 15-month high of around $16 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe. In Asia, meanwhile, gas was trading around $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark. NG/EU
Week Week Year Five
ende ende ago -yea
d d Jan r
Jan Jan 31 aver
31 24 age
Fore Actu Jan
cast al 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage -172 -321 -110 -174
change (bcf):
U.S. total natgas in storage 2,39 2,57 2,60 2,50
(bcf): 9 1 5 8
U.S. total storage versus -4.3 -4.1
5-year average % %
Global Gas Benchmark Futures Curr Prio This Prio Five
($ per mmBtu) ent r Mont r -Yea
Day Day h Year r
Last Aver Aver
Year age age
2024 (201
9-20
23)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.28 3.04 1.80 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility 16.2 16.3 8.12 10.9 15.4
(TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 8 1 5 7
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.4 14.2 8.93 11.8 15.2
JKMc1 4 3 9 3
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling
(CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree
Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Curr Prio Prio 10-Y 30-Y
ent r r ear ear
Day Day Year Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 389 362 342 413 413
U.S. GFS CDDs 11 9 3 6 4
U.S. GFS TDDs 400 371 345 419 417
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply
and Demand Forecasts
Prio Curr Next This Five
r ent Week Week -Yea
Week Week Last r
Year (202
0-20
24)A
vera
ge
For
Mont
h
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103. 105. 104. 105. 95.8
9 7 9 7
U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 9.8 9.9 N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 114. 115. 114. N/A
1 5 7
104.
0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.6 3.6 N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.8 6.0 N/A 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 12.9 14.4 14.6 13.3 11.3
U.S. Commercial 17.7 14.8 16.7 13.8
15.9
U.S. Residential 30.2 23.9 28.0 22.3
26.4
U.S. Power Plant 33.1 29.8 31.2 31.0
30.0
U.S. Industrial 25.6 24.7 25.5 24.4 25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 115. 101. 109. 102.
0 3 7 7
106.
7
Total U.S. Demand 137. 125. 133. N/A
2 1 8
125.
9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
Forecast Center (NWRFC) at Curr Pri % of % of % of
The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ent or Norm Norm Norm
ending Sep 30) Day Day al al al
% of % of Actu Actu Actu
Norm Norm al al al
al al
Fore Fore
cast cast
Apr-Sep 85 85 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 81 81 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 84 83 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation
percent by fuel - EIA
Week Week 2024 2023 2022
ende ende
d d
Feb Jan
7 31
Wind 14 12 11 10 11
Solar 5 4 5 4 3
Hydro 5 5 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 37 39 42 41 38
Coal 16 20 16 17 21
Nuclear 22 19 19 19
20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas
Next-Day Prices ($ per
mmBtu)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 2.93 3.12
Transco Z6 New York 2.8 2.88
NG-CG-NY-SNL 9
PG&E Citygate 3.4 3.46
NG-CG-PGE-SNL 6
Eastern Gas (old Dominion 2.6 2.59
South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 9
Chicago Citygate 2.7 2.87
NG-CG-CH-SNL 5
Algonquin Citygate 12.0 11.6
NG-CG-BS-SNL 0 6
SoCal Citygate 3.7 3.97
NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 1
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.2 2.52
7
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 1.49 1.30
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day
Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 116. 116.
63 63
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 36.3 32.7
5 1
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 104. 50.1
51 9
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 35.4 26.9
7 7
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 39.1 24.9
0 9
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see:
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((mailto:scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: rm://scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))