US natural gas prices slide 2% on forecasts for milder weather
05/02/2025 13:35
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US gas output hit daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on Jan. 31
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Storage withdrawals may have hit a monthly record high last month
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US LNG export feedgas on track for monthly record high in February
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on forecasts for milder weather and less demand for the fuel this week than previously expected.
That price decline occurred despite forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.2 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.201 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:11 a.m. EST (1311 GMT).
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall by around 1.3 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.3 bcfd on Wednesday, down from a daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on Jan. 31. The prior all-time high was 106.4 bcfd in January of 2024.
After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January of 2022, according to federal energy data. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from warmer than normal from Feb. 5-8 to mostly colder than normal from Feb. 9-14 and mostly near normal from Feb. 15-20.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 123.1 bcfd this week to 134.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December of 2023.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading near a 15-month high of around $16 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe. In Asia, meanwhile, gas was trading around $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark. NG/EU
Week Week Year Five-
ende ende ago year
d d Jan avera
Jan Jan 31 ge
31 24 Jan
Fore Actu 31
cast al
U.S. weekly natgas storage -172 -321 -110 -174
change (bcf):
U.S. total natgas in storage 2,39 2,57 2,60 2,508
(bcf): 9 1 5
U.S. total storage versus -4.3 -4.1
5-year average % %
Global Gas Benchmark Futures Curr Prio This Prior Five
($ per mmBtu) ent r Mont Year -Yea
Day Day h Avera r
Last ge Aver
Year 2024 age
(201
9-20
23)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.18 3.25 1.80 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility 15.9 15.9 8.12 10.95 15.4
(TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 9 2 7
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.4 14.4 8.93 11.89 15.2
JKMc1 9 1 3
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling
(CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree
Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Curr Prio Prio 10-Ye 30-Y
ent r r ar ear
Day Day Year Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 406 405 342 413 407
U.S. GFS CDDs 12 11 3 6 5
U.S. GFS TDDs 418 416 345 419 412
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply
and Demand Forecasts
Prio Curr Next This Five
r ent Week Week -Yea
Week Week Last r
Year (202
0-20
24)A
vera
ge
For
Mont
h
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103. 106. 105. 105.7 95.8
9 1 6
U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 9.8 9.8 N/A 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 114. 115. 115. N/A 104.
1 9 4 0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.5 3.5 N/A 2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 4.9 5.6 N/A 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 12.9 14.0 14.2 13.3 11.3
U.S. Commercial 17.7 15.0 17.4 13.8 15.9
U.S. Residential 30.2 24.2 29.1 22.3 26.4
U.S. Power Plant 33.1 28.6 30.2 31.0 30.0
U.S. Industrial 25.6 24.7 25.8 24.4 25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 115. 100. 110. 102.7 106.
0 6 8 7
Total U.S. Demand 137. 123. 134. N/A 125.
2 1 1 9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
Forecast Center (NWRFC) at Curr Pri % of % of % of
The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ent or Norm Norma Norm
ending Sep 30) Day Day al l al
% of % of Actu Actua Actu
Norm Norm al l al
al al
Fore Fore
cast cast
Apr-Sep 85 85 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 81 81 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 83 83 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation
percent by fuel - EIA
Week Week 2024 2023 2022
ende ende
d d
Feb Jan
7 31
Wind 14 12 11 10 11
Solar 5 4 5 4 3
Hydro 5 5 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 37 39 42 41 38
Coal 16 20 16 17 21
Nuclear 22 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas
Next-Day Prices ($ per
mmBtu)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.25 3.30
Transco Z6 New York 3.4 4.01
NG-CG-NY-SNL 3
PG&E Citygate 3.6 3.78
NG-CG-PGE-SNL 6
Eastern Gas (old Dominion 3.0 3.06
South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3
Chicago Citygate 3.0 3.14
NG-CG-CH-SNL 9
Algonquin Citygate 19.2 18.5
NG-CG-BS-SNL 5 0
SoCal Citygate 3.9 3.90
NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 7
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 2.1 2.14
5
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 2.04 2.55
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day
Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 162. 139.
47 80
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 47.2 39.8
5 3
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 90.4 234.
8 75
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 26.4 33.7
0 0
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 29.4 30.0
1 0
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see:
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((mailto:scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: rm://scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))