US natural gas prices slip on forecasts for milder weather, lower demand

OSAKA GAS

07/03/2025 14:04

US gas output on track to hit record high in March

US LNG export feedgas on track to match February record high

US natural gas prices up 10% so far this week

By Brijesh Patel

March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 3% on Friday, weighed down by forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 14.6 cents, or 3.4%, to $4.160 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:53 a.m. EST (1353 GMT).

"A further shift toward mild temperatures, especially next week that will see 60 degrees or higher across northern Illinois, has driven much of the apparent long liquidation," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

"But we also feel that the tariff issue that likely contributed to the big Tuesday price spike has also been pushed to the background as the Canadian levies have apparently been pushed back another month."

Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4.

In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada.

Prices are up about 10% so far this week despite near-record output and forecasts for mostly mild weather through mid-March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage over the next week or two.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28.

Extreme cold weather earlier this year forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, leaving current stockpiles about 11.3% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline by 2.3 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary one-week low of 104.6 bcfd on Friday, down from a three-week high of 106.9 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 107.2 on February 6.

In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.2 bcfd over the past few days since Trump's tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data.

That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly warmer than normal from March 6-15 to mostly colder than normal from March 16-21.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 110.4 bcfd this week to 109.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower compared to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

Week ended Feb 28 Actual
Week ended Feb 21 Actual
Year ago Feb 28
Five-year average
Feb 28
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-80
-261
-56
-94
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,760
1,840
2,345
1,984
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-11.3%
-11.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.20
4.38
1.75
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
13.05
12.64
8.54
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
13.69
13.73
8.95
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
250
280
238
283
295
U.S. GFS CDDs
9
8
11
15
11
U.S. GFS TDDs
259
288
249
298
306
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
104.1
105.4
105.1
101.8
97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.7
9.1
9.0
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
113.9
114.5
114.1
N/A
105.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.8
3.6
3.7
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.3
6.3
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Exports
15.9
15.6
15.4
13.3
11.8
U.S. Commercial
14.3
11.5
11.2
10.2
11.8
U.S. Residential
23.0
17.8
17.2
15.2
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
30.9
24.3
24.3
30.3
27.5
U.S. Industrial
24.8
23.8
23.8
23.4
23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.7
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
101.1
84.9
84.1
87.0
90.1
Total U.S. Demand
126.8
110.4
109.5
N/A
110.6
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
85
84
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
84
82
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
85
84
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 7
Week ended Feb 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
14
13
11
10
11
Solar
6
6
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
35
42
41
38
Coal
16
18
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.37
4.40
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.95
4.00
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.14
4.25
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.80
3.87
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
4.06
4.19
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.70
4.31
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.24
4.27
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.00
2.38
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.96
1.35
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
50.95
46.92
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
54.34
50.00
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
37.82
52.50
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
27.63
39.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
16.99
34.75


text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)

((Brijesh.Patel1@thomsonreuters.com; Within U.S. +1 651 848 5832, Outside U.S. +91 9590227221; Reuters Messaging: Brijesh.Patel1.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))