US natgas prices hold at one-week high on rising LNG flows, colder forecasts
07/02/2025 13:08
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US gas storage withdrawals may have hit a record high in January
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US gas production on track for record high in February
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US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week high on Friday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas
(LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange remained unchanged at $3.412 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:50 a.m. EST (1250 GMT). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since January 29 for a
second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was up about 12% after dropping about 24% last week.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far
in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That
compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by 1.1 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 105.4 bcfd on Friday. That compares
with a daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on January 31. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record
amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to
federal energy data.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.3
bcfd this week to 133.4 bcfd next week and 133.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on
Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from
14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global
prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark
in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Feb 7 Jan 31 Feb 7 average
Forecast Actual Feb 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -106 -174 -60 -144
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,291 2,397 2,545 2,364
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -3.1% -4.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2024 (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.42 3.41 1.80 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 16.77 16.49 8.12 10.95 15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 14.52 14.43 8.93 11.89 15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 425 413 342 413 402
U.S. GFS CDDs 10 11 3 6 5
U.S. GFS TDDs 435 424 345 419 407
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2020-2024)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.9 106.3 105.8 105.7 95.8
U.S. Imports from Canada 10.2 9.9 9.9 N/A 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 114.1 116.2 115.7 N/A 104.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.6 3.6 N/A 2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 4.9 5.5 N/A 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 12.9 14.0 13.8 13.3 11.3
U.S. Commercial 17.7 15.2 17.2 13.8 15.9
U.S. Residential 30.2 24.5 28.7 22.3 26.4
U.S. Power Plant 33.1 29.3 30.5 31.0 30.0
U.S. Industrial 25.6 24.8 25.7 24.4 25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 115.0 101.9 110.4 102.7 106.7
Total U.S. Demand 137.2 124.3 133.4 N/A 125.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
(Fiscal year ending Sep 30) Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual
Forecast Forecast
Apr-Sep 85 85 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 83 82 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 84 83 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended 2024 2023 2022
Feb 7 Jan 31
Wind 13 12 11 10 11
Solar 4 4 5 4 3
Hydro 5 5 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 38 39 42 41 38
Coal 17 20 16 17 21
Nuclear 21 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.31 3.22
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 3.36 3.17
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.60 3.65
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.12 2.97
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.18 3.10
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 13.00 13.10
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.92 3.99
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 2.10 1.86
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 1.54 1.81
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 122.13 142.23
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 39.85 44.36
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 73.31 84.69
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 20.77 28.38
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 17.58 28.02
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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