CEE MARKETS-Forint extends loss after worst week since March, FX look for data cues

OTP Bank Nyrt.

03/06/2024 09:40

By Boldizsar  Gyori
       BUDAPEST, June 3 (Reuters) - The forint fell to a
one-month low on Monday, weakening past the key level of 390 per
euro for a second day despite a ratings affirmation last week,
as central Europe's markets awaited a week of new data clues to
gauge prospects of interest rate cuts ahead.
    The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) in central Europe,
published on Monday, showed a mixed picture in the region, with
Hungary's factory activity showing slight expansion, while
Polish and Czech manufacturing remained stuck in a two-year
downturn.
    Also, late on Friday, Moody's ratings agency affirmed its
credit rating for Hungary. Unease before the ratings review had
weighed on the forint last week, when it lost 1.3% and fell off
a 3-1/2 month peak.
    The forint traded at 390.75 at 0739 GMT, down by 0.1%, which
is leading losses in central Europe this year.
        "We began the week by sticking to the level of 390,
which means the forint will trade in the range of 387-392," a
local trader said.
    The Polish zloty traded at 4.28, with investors waiting for
a likely no-change policy meeting on Wednesday that will
continue to reinforce the currency, which has danced around
four-year highs around 4.25 in recent weeks. 
    "The NBP meeting this week could be a reminder for the
market of strong fundamentals pushing EUR/PLN below 4.260
again," ING said in a note. 
    The Czech crown  EURCZK=  traded at 24.75 to the euro and
was in waiting mode for quarterly wage data due on Tuesday to
see how strong pay demands are and whether it could tilt the
central bank to be more cautious on rate cuts going ahead.
    CSOB said the wage outlook was a reason the bank's new staff
forecasts saw a higher rate trajectory than a previous outlook.
    "It will also be key to monitor global yield dynamics and
the euro/dollar in light of the ECB meeting (this week) and
(U.S.) payroll data on Friday," CSOB said.
    
    
                   CEE       SNAPSHO   AT                       
                   MARKETS   T        0939 CET           
                             CURRENC                            
                             IES                         
                             Latest   Previous  Daily    Change
                             bid      close     change   in 2024
 EURCZK=  Czech                                         
 EURHUF=  Hungary                 0                     
 EURPLN=  Polish                                        
 EURRON=  Romania                                       
                                                                
          Note:    calculat                     1800            
          daily    ed from                      CET      
          change                                         
                                                                
                             Latest   Previous  Daily    Change
                                      close     change   in 2024
 .PX      Prague    .PX      1552.50  1553.580   -0.07%   +9.79%
                                             0           
 .BUX     Budapes   .BUX     68916.2  67906.51   +1.49%   +13.69
          t                        7                           %
 .WIG20   Warsaw    .WIG20   2509.59   2485.53   +0.97%   +7.11%
 .BETI    Buchare   .BETI    17565.2  17588.48   -0.13%   +14.27
          st                       6                           %
                                                                
                                                Spread   Daily
                                                vs Bund  change
                                                         in
          Czech                                          spread
          Republi                                        
          c                                              
 CZ2YT=R                                            s  
 CZ5YT=R                                            s  
 CZ10YT=                                           s  
          Poland                                                
 PL2YT=R                                            s  
 PL5YT=R                                            s  
 PL10YT=                                           s  
          Note:    are for                                      
          FRA      ask                                   
          quotes   prices                                
          ************************************                  
          **************************                     
 

 (Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, additional reporting
by Jason Hovet in Prague, Editing by Louise Heavens)
 ((boldizsar.gyori@thomsonreuters.com;))
 
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