CEE MARKETS-Middle East tensions weigh on Central European currencies

OTP Bank Nyrt.

14/07/2026 09:57

WARSAW, July 14 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were weaker on Tuesday as continued tensions in the Middle East pushed energy prices sharply higher, renewing concerns about the impact on the global economy.
The zloty EURPLN= had shed 0.4% by 0754 GMT to 4.3435 per euro.
"Rekindled inflation concerns are reducing risk appetite and working against the Polish zloty, but volatility is low this morning," Bank Millennium economists said in a note. "However, the scope for further weakening of the zloty is limited due to the scale of depreciation last week." 
They warned, however, of a potential selloff in Polish debt, saying yields on 10-year bonds could rise towards 5.50%. 
ING noted that the risk-off sentiment and a stronger U.S. dollar were lifting the euro against the zloty and the forint, while the Czech crown EURCZK= was more stable, weakening just 0.1% to 24.2970 per euro. 
"Hawkish CNB rhetoric should continue to cap EUR/CZK upside, leaving the koruna as the most resilient CEE currency," they wrote in a note.  
"EUR/HUF is again approaching the 360 mark after two days of relief, a level that may act as resistance for many market participants. With our view of EUR/HUF in the range of 350-360 for the rest of the year, further upside should be limited."
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= fell 0.6% to 360.50 per euro.
"In yesterday's trading, the euro-forint exchange rate closed above important resistance levels, which already provide support at 357.60 and 358.50. The next important resistance is in the range of 360.00-360.60, then the next obstacle can be seen at 364," brokerage Equilor said.
Stock markets in the region were mixed, with Warsaw .WIG20 and Prague .PX falling 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the main index in Budapest .BUX rose 0.3%, supported by gains in oil and gas company MOL MOLB.BU and OTP bank OTPB.BU shares.
     
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0954 CET                                                                                                   
CURRENCIES                                 
Latest trade
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Czech crown
EURCZK=
24.2970
24.2680
-0.12%
-0.54%
Hungary forint
EURHUF=
360.5000
358.3500
-0.60%
 +6.62%
Polish zloty
EURPLN=
4.3435
4.3270
-0.38%
-2.94%
Romanian leu
EURRON=
5.2380
5.2339
-0.08%
-2.75%
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
117.2400
117.3400
 +0.09%
 +0.05%
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
STOCKS                                           
Latest
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Prague
.PX
2591.28
2609.2900
-0.69%
-3.51%
Budapest
.BUX
141692.15
141206.10
 +0.34%
 +27.61%
Warsaw
.WIG20
3759.01
3772.63
-0.36%
 +18.06%
Bucharest
.BETI
34266.06
34090.04
 +0.52%
 +40.21%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
BONDS                                                                                             
Yield (bid)
Yield change
Spread vs Bund
Daily change in spread
Czech Rep 2-year
CZ2YT=RR
3.9498
0.0543
 +117bps
-1bps
Czech Rep 5-year
CZ5YT=RR
4.2311
0.0598
 +137bps
 +1bps
Czech Rep 10-year
CZ10YT=RR
4.8101
0.0718
 +171bps
 +4bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
Poland 2-year
PL2YT=RR
4.1370
-0.0230
 +136bps
-9bps
Poland 5-year
PL5YT=RR
4.8820
0.0190
 +202bps
-3bps
Poland 10-year
PL10YT=RR
5.4690
0.0460
 +237bps
 +2bps
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS
3x6
6x9
9x12
3M interbank
Czech Rep
CZKFRA, PRIBOR=
4.03
4.14
4.20
3.81
Poland
PLNFRA, WIBOR=
3.79
3.80
3.83
3.85
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices                                                                                                                          

(Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw, Kristina Than in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
((anna.wlodarczak@thomsonreuters.com;))