AI infra firm Pagaya beats Q3 adjusted profit estimates, raises guidance

Pagaya Technologies

10/11/2025 12:12

Overview

Pagaya Q3 total revenue rises 36% yr/yr to $350 mln

Adjusted net income for Q3 beats analyst expectations significantly

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 increases 91% yr/yr to $107 mln

Outlook

Pagaya raises full-year revenue guidance to $1,300 mln-$1,325 mln

Company expects FY25 adjusted EBITDA between $372 mln and $382 mln

4Q25 network volume expected between $2.65 bln and $2.9 bln

Result Drivers

REVENUE GROWTH - Driven by improved economics in Personal Loan and Auto verticals

NETWORK VOLUME INCREASE - Growth in Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals with focus on prudent underwriting

EXPENSE REDUCTION - Lower expenses and normalized impairments contributed to net income growth

Key Details

Metric
Beat/Miss
Actual
Consensus Estimate
Q3 Total Revenue & Other Income
$350 mln
Q3 Adjusted Net Income
Beat
$93 mln
$14.42 mln (10 Analysts)
Q3 Net Income
$23 mln
Q3 Adjusted EBITDA
$107 mln


Analyst Coverage

The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 9 "strong buy" or "buy", 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

The average consensus recommendation for the financial technology (fintech) peer group is "buy"

Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Pagaya Technologies Ltd is $39.00, about 37.3% above its November 7 closing price of $24.45

The stock recently traded at 16 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 27 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nBwbbZ79ha

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact RefinitivNewsSupport@thomsonreuters.com.

(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)