Ackman's UMG bid sees analysts split on Bolloré's next move (updated)

Pershing Square Holdings

08/04/2026 13:24

Adds detail on voting rights and Ackman's comment in 6th bullet point.

By Mateusz Rabiega and Leo Marchandon

April 8 (Reuters) - Market analysts are split over whether Universal Music Group's UMG.AS top stakeholders will support billionaire Bill Ackman's Pershing Square PSHP.L proposed $64 billion takeover of the music label.

For analysts, French tycoon Vincent Bolloré's next move is critical and uncertain. Along with Vivendi VIV.PA, also controlled by the Bolloré family, analysts were split over whether the leading shareholders would welcome the touted value creation from a U.S. listing or if they would prefer to retain more control of the company. Neither party, which together hold close to 32% of UMG's shares, has commented on the proposal yet.

UMG said on Wednesday that its board would review the proposal and analyse its "implications" for stakeholders, without providing further comments. The cash-and-shares offer, which Pershing Square values at around 30.40 euros per share, is higher than the stock's all-time high of 29.49 euros from May 2024.

WHAT THE ANALYSTS SAY:

J.P. Morgan does not expect the duo of Bolloré and Vivendi to support the deal, saying "there is nothing in proposal that UMG could not do itself" and that Bolloré may want to realise opportunities to seize value on its own schedule.

AlphaValue analysts said on Vivendi and Bolloré that the U.S. listing "disguised as a merger" could provide a welcome cash injection for both groups, should they accept the offer.

Morningstar did not make a prediction on whether the shareholders would back the deal but said the merger could help unlock some value in UMG, which it views as "grossly undervalued". It added that apart from Bolloré, Vivendi, Tencent and Pershing Square itself, the rest of shareholders would have "little to say in the outcome".

Deutsche Bank analysts also gave no forecast on whether the deal would get Bollore's backing, though they said the offer was "opportunistic and timely" considering UMG's underperformance against the wider market, as shown by its year-to-date decline of around 14% as of Tuesday.

ING analysts said that while they noticed "a bit of wishful thinking" on "toppish" valuation scenarios, the Pershing proposal raised many valid points on shortcomings troubling UMG. On Tuesday, the analysts said the deal "might well fail".

The proposed deal requires a two-thirds majority and cannot be reached without Vincent Bolloré's support, as the 32% stake he controls benefits from double voting rights. Ackman told investors on Tuesday that Bolloré had told him the day before that a high-level description of the proposal, albeit not with every detail, was "music to his ears".

(Reporting by Mateusz Rabiega and Leo Marchandon in Gdansk, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak and Anousha Sakoui)

((Mateusz.Rabiega@thomsonreuters.com; +48 58 769 67 57;))