Live Markets: On the ground in Hormuz with Citrini Research

Pershing Square Holdings

07/04/2026 09:30

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ON THE GROUND IN HORMUZ WITH CITRINI RESEARCH

A research house that spooked markets with a gloomy AI report said it sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz last week and found the shipping lane busier than tracking data suggests, and forecast traffic to increase even if fighting intensifies.

Reuters has reported, citing data and official and other sources on Iran-linked, Greek-run, Indian, Chinese, Malaysian, Pakistani, and other vessels as transiting the Strait in recent weeks. Since the war started in late February, marine traffic through the waterway has slowed to a trickle, which has pushed the oil price up 50% in that time.

Citrini Research, a U.S.-based firm that shot to prominence in February when a piece imagining AI-driven mass unemployment drove down stock markets, identified its researcher only as "analyst #3" in a report that counted ships and quoted anonymous officials, fishermen and a hotel-bar encounter with a captain.

"We confirmed 15 ships crossing the Strait on April 2nd. The counting methodology was not exactly institutional-grade - a barstool with a sightline," the unnamed analyst said.

"I figured, if I was out here, I might as well go for it. I hopped in the water and swam. Cigar in my mouth. Shaheds above," they said.

Reuters could not immediately verify information in the report, dated April 6, though has reported that Dynacom is one of the few shipowners to traverse the strait, successfully sailing at least three tankers from the Gulf since war began.

Investors are anxiously awaiting an April 7 deadline U.S. President Donald Trump had set for Iran to reopen shipping or face fierce attack. MKTS/GLOB

"It is distinctly likely that we see both an escalation of the conflict within the next week or so while traffic simultaneously increases through the Strait," Citrini said.

(Tom Westbrook)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

STOXX DIPS, MEDIA STOCKS JUMP ON UMG BID CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES TREAD WATER AS IRAN DEADLINE NEARS CLICK HERE

A BREAKTHROUGH DEAL OR A CRUDE AWAKENING? CLICK HERE

How global stocks have performed this year https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-AUTOMATED/GL-PCT-CHANGE-YTD/akvejjlklpr/chart.png

Mixed start for Europe as Trump's Iran deadline nears https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-STOCKS/jnvwrlglypw/chart.png