REG - PetroTal Corp. - 2023 Year-End Oil Reserves
12/02/2024 07:00
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RNS Number : 7879C PetroTal Corp. 12 February 2024
PetroTal Announces 2023 Year-End Oil Reserves
2P reserves value per share of USD$1.80 (CAD$2.39) (GBP1.41)
2P estimated ultimate recovery now over 117 million barrels
1P and 2P reserves replacement ratios of 150% and 167%, respectively
1P and 2P reserve increases of 6% and 4%, respectively
2P reserve life of 19 years
2P after tax NPV-10 value increased 9% since year-end 2022 to more than
USD$1.6 billion
Calgary, AB and Houston, TX - February 12, 2024-PetroTal Corp. ("PetroTal" or
the "Company") (TSX: TAL, AIM: PTAL and OTCQX: PTALF) is pleased to announce
the results of its 2023 year-end reserve evaluation (the "NSAI Report") by
Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. ("NSAI") for the Bretana oil field,
operated 100% by PetroTal. All currency amounts are in United States dollars
(unless otherwise stated) and comparisons refer to equivalent information as
at December 31, 2022. All figures subject to rounding differences.
Highlights:
· For 1P and 2P (each as defined below) categories respectively,
increases of 13% and 9% to Net Present Value (discounted at 10% after tax
("NPV-10 AT")), and per share values to US$0.97/share (CAD$1.29/share) and
US$1.80/share (CAD$2.39/share);
· Increases in reserve categories:
Category 2023 reserves 2023 NPV-10 after tax 2023 NPV-10 after tax/bbl
mmbbls $ billion $/bbl
Proved ("1P") 48 (+6%) $0.9 $18.50
Probable ("2P") 100 (+4%) $1.6 $16.39
Possible ("3P") 200 (+19%) $2.5 $12.54
· Strong results for various key year-end 2023 reserve-based metrics:
o 2023 reserves life index for 1P and 2P reserves, is approximately 9 and 19
years, respectively, using the average 2023 production run rate of 14,248
barrels ("bbls") of oil per day ("bopd");
o Robust 2023 production reserves replacement ratios of 150% and 167% for 1P
and 2P reserves, respectively;
o Original Oil in Place ("OOIP") largely flat from 2022 levels. Now at 326,
442, and 595 million bbls ("mmbbls"), respectively, for the 1P, 2P and 3P
cases;
o Increased 1P and 2P total booked well counts in 2023 by 2 and 3 wells, to 23
and 32 wells, respectively. Total 3P well count remains at 36; and,
o 2P recovery factor continued to increase in 2023 to 26% (from 24% at
year-end 2022).
· 2023 Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") reserves increased 18% to 29
mmbbls, representing 60% of 1P reserves, reflecting an attractive ratio of
base production to low risk drilling proved undeveloped ("PUD") targets;
· 2P Future Development Capital ("FDC") increased 36% to $551 million
from year-end 2022 reflecting an additional 3 wells booked at year-end 2023,
erosion control costs, and associated water disposal capacity and facilities
needed to accommodate anticipated flush and run rate production volumes; and,
· For the first time since the Company's inception, operating costs, in
the current 2023 year ended reserve report do not include any diluent,
reflecting the Company's commercial efforts to find new ways to reduce
operating costs.
Manuel Pablo Zuniga-Pflucker, President and Chief Executive Officer,
commented:
"The PetroTal team is committed to increasing value for all stakeholders from
Bretana's oil recovery enhancement. It is noteworthy that our market
capitalization is currently at a discount to our PDP after tax NPV-10
valuation even as the Company continues to make significant shareholder
distributions and remains debt free.
Reserves attributed to the Bretana oil field have grown tremendously since
2017. Our drilling success combined with the field's strong natural aquifer
support that allows for recovery factors beyond 30% has underpinned a world
class oil operation that is expected to deliver material free cash flow for
the next 20 years. The field's 2P and 3P reserves of 100 and 200 million
barrels, respectively, will be extracted with one of the smallest operational
footprints in the world, sustainable for years to come."
2023 Year-end Reserves Summary
The summary below sets forth PetroTal's reserves as at December 31, 2023, as
presented in the reserves report prepared by NSAI, an independent qualified
reserves evaluator. The figures in the following tables have been prepared
in accordance with the standards contained in the most recent publication of
the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the "COGEH") and the reserve
definitions contained in National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure
for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). In addition to the summary
information disclosed in this announcement, more detailed information will be
included in PetroTal's annual information form for the year ended December 31,
2023 (the "AIF") to be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca
(https://www.sedarplus.ca/landingpage/) ) and posted on PetroTal's website
(www.petrotal-corp.com) in March 2024.
Five Year Crude Oil Price Forecast - NSAI Report
Year-End Forecast: 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 5 Yr Avg
Brent (USD$/bbl) - January 1, 2024 $78.00 $79.18 $80.36 $81.79 $83.41 $80.55
Brent (USD$/bbl) - January 1, 2023 $82.69 $81.03 $81.39 $82.65 $84.29 $82.41
The oil price projections used by NSAI are based upon an average of December
31, 2023 and 2022 forecasts of Brent Crude futures prices prepared by three
qualified reserves evaluators: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., McDaniel &
Associates Consultants Ltd. and Sproule Associates Limited. The five year
average for the NSAI Report reflects an average Brent oil price of $80.55,
which as at the time of this press release, is approximately $2/bbl higher
than current market Brent prices.
Year-End Crude Oil Reserves (mmbbls)
CATEGORY 2023 2022 Change
Proved
Developed Producing 28.5 24.1 +18%
Undeveloped 19.5 21.4 -9%
Total Proved 48.0 45.4 +6%
Probable 52.2 51.3 +2%
Total Proved plus Probable 100.2 96.7 +4%
Possible 99.4 71.6 +39%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible 199.6 168.3 +19%
Represents gross and net bbls since PetroTal has a 100% working interest and a
100% net revenue interest in these properties. Royalties are paid from sales
proceeds.
Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - Before Tax ($ millions)
CATEGORY 2023 2022 Change
Proved
Developed Producing $748 $635 +18%
Undeveloped $623 $529 +18%
Total Proved $1,371 $1,164 +18%
Probable $1,169 $1,124 +4%
Total Proved plus Probable $2,540 $2,288 +11%
Possible $1,346 $1,485 -9%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible $3,886 $3,773 +3%
Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - After Tax ($ millions)
CATEGORY 2023 2022 Change
Proved
Developed Producing $487 $446 +9%
Undeveloped $401 $339 +18%
Total Proved $888 $784 +13%
Probable $751 $724 +4%
Total Proved plus Probable $1,639 $1,509 +9%
Possible $869 $959 -9%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible $2,508 $2,468 +2%
Forecast Revenues and Costs((1-5)) ($ millions)
Undiscounted Undiscounted Undiscounted Undiscounted Undiscounted Discounted Discounted
CATEGORY Revenue Royalties OPEX FDC B-Tax Net Revenue B-Tax Net Revenue A-Tax Net Revenue
Total Proved $3,729 $289 $1,188 $125 $2,127 $1,371 $888
Total Proved plus Probable $8,146 $703 $1,884 $551 $5,009 $2,540 $1,639
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible $18,017 $1,597 $4,286 $768 $11.367 $3,886 $2,508
1) Royalties include the 2.5% social fund for all years.
2) Future Development Capital ("FDC") includes abandonment.
3) Net Revenue is defined as revenue less royalties less operating costs
less FDC.
4) B-tax and A-tax refer to before and after tax.
5) Discounted values are discounted at 10%.
Year-End Reserves Value per Share - After tax
CATEGORY Dec. 31, 2023 Dec. 31, 2022
Reserves per share US$/sh CAD$/sh GBP/sh US$/sh CAD$/sh GBP/sh
Proved $0.97 $1.29 0.76 $0.90 $1.23 0.75
Proved plus Probable $1.80 $2.39 1.41 $1.75 $2.29 1.45
Proved plus Probable & Possible $2.75 $3.65 2.16 $2.86 $3.47 2.37
Represents NPV-10 (after tax) divided by the number of common shares issued as
of December 31 of each respective year and excludes other balance sheet items
at the relevant date. Canadian and GBP share prices are converted at the
respective year end foreign exchange conversion rates. Common shares issued
at December 31, 2023 total 912.3 million shares and at December 31, 2022 total
862.2 million shares.
Reserve Life Index((1-3))
CATEGORY Dec. 31, 2023 Dec. 31, 2022
Proved 9.2 years 10.1 years
Proved plus Probable 19.3 years 21.5 years
Proved plus Probable & Possible 38.4 years 37.4 years
(1) 2023 values based on 2023 year-end reserves divided by average
2023 production of 14,248 bopd.
(2) The license for Block 95 expires in 2041.
(3) 2022 values based on 2022 year-end reserves divided by average
2022 production of 12,200 bopd.
Future Development Costs
The following information sets forth development and abandonment costs
deducted in the estimation of PetroTal's future net revenue attributable to
the reserve categories noted below:
CATEGORY ($ million) 2023 2022 Change
Proved
Developed Producing $25 $105 -76%
Undeveloped $99 $124 -20%
Total Proved $125 $229 -45%
Probable $426 $176 +142%
Total Proved plus Probable $551 $404 +36%
Possible $217 $220 -1%
Total Proved plus Probable & Possible $768 $624 +23%
Future development costs ($/bbl) 2023 2022 Change
Proved $6.40 $10.69 -40%
Proved plus Probable $7.69 $5.56 +38%
Proved plus Probable & Possible $4.49 $4.33 +4%
The future development and abandonment costs are estimates of the future
capital expenditures required to convert the corresponding reserves to PDP
reserves. Future development per bbl is determined using the future
development capital divided by the 1P, 2P, or 3P reserves, less cumulative
PDP.
2023 Year-End Gross Reserves Reconciliation (mmbbls)
Proved Proved plus Probable Proved plus Probable & Possible
December 31, 2022 45.4 96.7 168.3
Technical Revisions 8.0 8.7 36.5
Economic Factors (0.2) - -
Production (5.2) (5.2) (5.2)
December 31, 2023 48.0 100.2 199.6
Well 16H and Corporate Production Update
January 2024 average production was 20,450 bopd with an associated Brent price
of $80/bbl, ahead of Company guidance on a production and revenue basis.
Well 16H continues to produce at above expected level rates with a 26 day
production average of approximately 4,850 bopd as at February 11, 2024 and an
estimated investment payback in Q2 2024.
Qualified Person's Statement
Estuardo Alvarez-Calderon, a consultant to the Company, who has over 35 years
of relevant experience in the oil industry, has approved the technical
information contained in this announcement. Mr. Alvarez-Calderon received a
Bachelor of Science degree in Geology from the University of Texas at Austin
and is registered on the Texas Board of Professional Geoscientists.
The recovery and reserve estimates provided in this news release are estimates
only, and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be
recovered. Actual reserves may eventually prove to be greater than, or less
than, the estimates provided herein.
ABOUT PETROTAL
PetroTal is a publicly traded, tri‐quoted (TSX: TAL, AIM: PTAL and OTCQX:
PTALF) oil and gas development and production Company domiciled in Calgary,
Alberta, focused on the development of oil assets in Peru. PetroTal's
flagship asset is its 100% working interest in Bretana oil field in Peru's
Block 95 where oil production was initiated in June 2018. Since early 2022,
PetroTal has been the largest crude oil producer in Peru. The Company's
management team has significant experience in developing and exploring for oil
in Peru and is led by a Board of Directors that is focused on safely and cost
effectively developing the Bretana oil field. It is actively building new
initiatives to champion community sensitive energy production, benefiting all
stakeholders.
For further information, please see the Company's website at
www.petrotal-corp.com (http://www.petrotal-corp.com) , the Company's filed
documents at www.sedarplus.ca (https://www.sedarplus.ca/landingpage/) , or
below:
Douglas Urch
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Durch@PetroTal-Corp.com
T: (713) 609-9101
Manolo Zuniga
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mzuniga@PetroTal-Corp.comT: (713) 609-9101
PetroTal Investor Relations
InvestorRelations@PetroTal-Corp.com
Celicourt Communications
Mark Antelme / Jimmy Lea
petrotal@celicourt.uk
T: 44 (0) 20 7770 6424
Strand Hanson Limited (Nominated & Financial Adviser)
Ritchie Balmer / James Spinney / Robert Collins
T: 44 (0) 207 409 3494
Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (Joint Broker)
Callum Stewart / Simon Mensley / Ashton Clanfield
T: +44 (0) 20 7710 7600
Peel Hunt LLP (Joint Broker)
Richard Crichton / Bhavesh Patel / Georgia Langoulant
T: +44 (0) 20 7418 8900
READER ADVISORIES
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This press release contains certain statements
that may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such statements relate to
possible future events. All statements other than statements of historical
fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often,
but not always, identified by the use of words such as "anticipate",
"believe", "expect", "plan", "estimate", "potential", "will", "should",
"continue", "may", "objective" and similar expressions. Without limitation,
this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to:
PetroTal's business strategy, objectives, and focus; drilling, completions,
and other activities and the anticipated costs and results of such activities;
PetroTal's anticipated operational results for 2024 including, but not limited
to, estimated or anticipated production levels, capital expenditures and
drilling plans; plans to deliver strong operational performance and to
generate free cash flow and growth; capital requirements; the ability of the
Company to achieve drilling success consistent with management's expectations;
estimated 2P ultimate recovery to over 117 million bbls; 2023 reserve life
index of approximately 9 and 10 years for 1P and 2P, respectively; anticipated
future production and revenue; Well 16H expected investment payback and the
timing thereof; drilling plans including the timing of drilling,
commissioning, and startup and the impact of delays thereon; PetroTal's
commitment to increasing shareholder value; five year crude oil price
forecast; forecast revenues and costs; 2024 dividends and the timing thereof;
the implications of PetroTal's PDP after tax NPV-10 valuation including that
it will result in new shareholders receiving a significant quarterly dividend
and value from the Company's PUD (and the extent of such value); oil
production levels; and the timing of filing the AIF. In addition, statements
relating to expected production, reserves, recovery, costs and valuation are
deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied
assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves
described can be profitably produced in the future. The forward-looking
statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by the
Company, including, but not limited to, expectations and assumptions
concerning the ability of existing infrastructure to deliver production and
the anticipated capital expenditures associated therewith, the ability to
obtain and maintain necessary permits and licenses, the ability of government
groups to effectively achieve objectives in respect of reducing social
conflict and collaborating towards continued investment in the energy sector,
reservoir characteristics, recovery factor, exploration upside, prevailing
commodity prices and the actual prices received for PetroTal's products,
including pursuant to hedging arrangements, the availability and performance
of drilling rigs, facilities, pipelines, other oilfield services and skilled
labour, royalty regimes and exchange rates, the impact of inflation on costs,
the application of regulatory and licensing requirements, the accuracy of
PetroTal's geological interpretation of its drilling and land opportunities,
current legislation, receipt of required regulatory approval, the success of
future drilling and development activities, the performance of new wells,
future river water levels, the Company's growth strategy, general economic
conditions and availability of required equipment and services. Although the
Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the
forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not
be placed on the forward-looking statements because the Company can give no
assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements
address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve
inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from
those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These
include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas
industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and
production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or
development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve
estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to
production, costs and expenses; and health, safety and environmental risks),
commodity price volatility, price differentials and the actual prices received
for products, exchange rate fluctuations, legal, political and economic
instability in Peru, access to transportation routes and markets for the
Company's production, changes in legislation affecting the oil and gas
industry and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans
with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures,
changes in the financial landscape both domestically and abroad, including
volatility in the stock market and financial system, and wars (including
Russia's war in Ukraine, the Israeli- Hamas conflict and the Houthi attacks in
the Red Sea). Please refer to the risk factors identified in the Company's
annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2022 and management's
discussion and analysis for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023
which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca
(https://www.sedarplus.ca/landingpage/) . The forward-looking statements
contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company
undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking
statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future
events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
SHORT-TERM RESULTS: References in this press release to peak production rates,
current production rates, average 30-day production rates and other short-term
production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons,
however such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will
commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long term
performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned
not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production
for PetroTal. The Company cautions that such results should be considered to
be preliminary.
OIL REFERENCES: All references to "oil" or "crude oil" production, revenue or
sales in this press release mean "heavy crude oil" as defined in NI 51-101.
All references to Brent indicate Intercontinental Exchange Brent. Recovery
factor percentages include historical production.
RESERVES DISCLOSURE: PetroTal's Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and
Gas Information on Form 51-101F1 dated effective as at December 31, 2023,
which will include further disclosure of PetroTal's oil and gas reserves and
other oil and gas information in accordance with NI 51-101 and COGEH forming
the basis of this press release, will be included in the AIF, which will be
available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca
(https://www.sedarplus.ca/landingpage/) in March 2024. All reserves values,
future net revenue and ancillary information contained in this press release
are derived from the NSAI Report unless otherwise noted. Estimates of reserves
and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same
level of confidence as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all
properties, due to the effect of aggregation. There is no assurance that the
forecast price and cost assumptions applied by NSAI in evaluating PetroTal's
reserves will be attained and variances could be material. It should not be
assumed that the estimates of future net revenues presented in the tables
below represent the fair market value of the reserves. The recovery and
reserve estimates of PetroTal's oil reserves provided herein are estimates
only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered.
Actual oil reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided
herein. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of
crude oil, reserves and the future cash flows attributed to such reserves. The
reserve and associated cash flow information set forth herein are estimates
only. Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high
degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Probable
reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered
than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated
proved plus probable reserves. Proved developed producing reserves are those
reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at
the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if
shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of
resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty. Possible
reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations
where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a
well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet
the requirements of the reserves category (proved, probable, possible) to
which they are assigned. Certain terms used in this press release but not
defined are defined in NI 51-101, CSA Staff Notice 51-324 - Revised Glossary
to NI 51-101, Revised Glossary to NI 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil
and Gas Activities ("CSA Staff Notice 51-324") and/or the COGEH and, unless
the context otherwise requires, shall have the same meanings herein as in NI
51-101, CSA Staff Notice 51-324 and the COGEH, as the case may be.
OIL AND GAS MEASURES: This press release contains metrics commonly used in the
oil and natural gas industry which have been prepared by management, such as
"OOIP", "development capital", "F&D costs", "net asset value" and
"reserves life index". These terms do not have a standardized meaning and may
not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and
therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. "OOIP" is equivalent to
total petroleum initially-in-place ("TPIIP"). TPIIP, as defined in the COGEH,
is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist in naturally
occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum that is
estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, prior
to production, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be
discovered. A portion of the TPIIP is considered undiscovered and there is no
certainty that any portion of such undiscovered resources will be discovered.
If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to
produce any portion of such undiscovered resources. With respect to the
portion of the TPIIP that is considered discovered resources, there is no
certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such
discovered resources. A significant portion of the estimated volumes of TPIIP
will never be recovered. "Development capital" means the aggregate exploration
and development costs incurred in the financial year on reserves that are
categorized as development. Development capital excludes capitalized
administration costs. "Finding and development costs" or "F&D costs" are
calculated as the sum of field capital plus the change in future development
costs for the period divided by the change in reserves that are characterized
as development for the period. Finding and development costs take into account
reserves revisions during the year on a per bbl basis. The aggregate of the
exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year and changes
during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not
reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for
that year. "Net asset value" is based on present value of future net revenues
discounted at 10% before tax on reserves, net of estimated net debt at year
end divided by the basic shares outstanding at year end. "Reserve life index"
is calculated as total Company interest reserves divided by annual production.
These terms have been calculated by management and do not have a standardized
meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other
companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons.
Management uses these oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements
and to provide shareholders with measures to compare PetroTal's operations
over time. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these
metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this press
release, should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes.
FOFI DISCLOSURE: This press release contains future-oriented financial
information and financial outlook information (collectively, "FOFI") about
NPV-10, future development and abandonment costs and the components thereof,
prospective results of operations, production and production capacity, free
cash flow, revenue, forecast revenues and costs and the components thereof,
five year crude oil Price forecast, shareholder returns (including that
shareholders of PetroTal will continue to receive a significant quarterly
dividend), and tax rates, all of which are subject to the same assumptions,
risk factors, limitations and qualifications as set forth in the above
paragraphs. FOFI contained in this press release was approved by management as
of the date of this press release and was included for the purpose of
providing further information about PetroTal's anticipated future business
operations. PetroTal disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise
any FOFI contained in this press release, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to
applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press
release should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed
herein. All FOFI contained in this press release complies with the
requirements of Canadian securities legislation, including NI 51-101. Changes
in forecast commodity prices, differences in the timing of capital
expenditures, and variances in average production estimates can have a
significant impact on the key performance measures included in PetroTal's
guidance. The Company's actual results may differ materially from these
estimates.
Neither the TSX Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is
defined in the policies of the TSX Exchange) accepts responsibility for the
adequacy or accuracy of this press release.
The information contained within this announcement is deemed by the Company to
constitute inside information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulation
(EU) No. 596/2014 as it forms part of United Kingdom domestic law by virtue of
the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, as amended.".
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