US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict (updated)

PG&E

02/03/2026 20:41

US gas futures rise despite warmer weather forecasts

Waha Hub prices in Texas negative for 17th consecutive day

Global gas prices hit highs on supply concerns

Adds closing prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Monday on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a rise in
global energy prices
 as traders worried about supply disruptions as the U.S.-Israeli
air war against Iran
 widened in the Middle East.

Capping gains in U.S. gas futures were milder forecasts for weather and heating demand over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.1 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.96 per million British thermal units.

        In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 17th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 26 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 32 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL fell to a record low of $1.30 per mmBtu. That compares with the prior all-time low of $1.30 on February 26 and averages of $2.28 so far in 2026, $3.42 in 2025, and $5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).

While in Southern California, spot gas at the SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL fell to $1.62 per mmBtu, its lowest since November 2024. That compares with averages of $3.19 so far in 2026, $3.60 in 2025, and $5.71 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Energy analysts said a winter storm last week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual, knocking stockpiles down to about 2% below normal for the week ended February 27 from near normal the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 17, analysts expect stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 121.4 bcfd this week to 110.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants eased to 18.6 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

In Europe, gas soared to a one-year high of around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark after QatarEnergy halted production of LNG due to the Iran conflict. Qatar is one of the world's biggest LNG producers along with the U.S. and Australia. NG/EU

Week ended Feb 27 Forecast
Week ended Feb 20 Actual
Year ago Feb 27
Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-125
-52
-106
-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,893
2,018
1,771
1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
-1.9%
-0.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.01
2.86
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
15.34
11.24
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.73
10.61
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
221
234
265
316
322
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
27
29
10
12
8
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
248
263
275
328
330
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.2
109.7
109.9
106.3
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.4
8.5
8.3
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
118.7
118.2
118.2
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.0
3.5
3.4
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.6
6.4
6.5
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.7
18.5
18.2
15.6
13.2
U.S. Commercial
16.1
12.0
9.4
13.9
12.1
U.S. Residential
26.2
18.0
13.0
22.0
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
32.5
31.0
29.5
30.2
31.8
U.S. Industrial
25.3
24.0
23.2
24.8
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.9
2.5
2.2
3.4
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
108.5
92.9
82.8
99.4
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
137.7
121.4
110.9
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
93
92
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
93
92
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
97
97
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 6
Week ended Feb 27
2025
2024
2023
Wind
14
13
11
11
10
Solar
8
6
6
5
4
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
35
37
40
42
41
Coal
14
16
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
19
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.96
2.94
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
4.03
2.55
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.30
1.37
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.61
2.35
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.75
2.62
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
11.25
4.04
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
1.62
2.10
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-2.44
-1.66
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.02
1.01
1.47
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
115.83
53.15
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
65.08
37.64
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
20.40
16.66
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
11.10
10.96
23.31
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
6.57
12.12
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))