Live Markets: Autos: Twists and turns with U.S. election scenarios

PHINIA

20/09/2024 18:11

* 
      S&P 500, Nasdaq dip, Dow up slightly
    

        * 
      Utilities lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Materials weakest
group
    

        * 
      Dollar flat, bitcoin slips; crude up; gold up >1%
    

        * 
      U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~3.72%
    

  
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to
you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at
    
    
    AUTOS: TWISTS AND TURNS WITH U.S. ELECTION SCENARIOS
    With less than two months to go before the U.S. Presidential
election, UBS analyst Joseph Spak was out with some research
this week suggesting potential outcomes for the auto industry
depending on who wins on Nov. 5. All of the outcomes he
described seemed to come with some worries. 
    If the Democrats win, Spak says he "would expect a mostly
status quo scenario for EV-related and tariff policy," which
could come with out-performance in EV related stocks. But Spak
said "taxes could be a headwind for the entire group" in this
scenario.
    But if Democrat Kamala Harris wins the White House, but end
up with a mixed or Republican controlled Congress, this could
make it harder to implement tax changes. 
    On the other side, if the Republicans win, Spak sees more
potential for change. If re-elected, Donald Trump could try to
undo EV tax credits and look to loosen Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) standards. He may also try to cut U.S. taxes.
    If this is the case, Spak says he sees a positive initial
reaction for companies with exposure to traditional internal
combustion engine vehicles such as Ford, General Motors  GM.N ,
Phinia  PHIN.K , and American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
 AXL.N .
    But, if Trump wins and implements tariffs on all imports
including from Mexico Spak says "this would be highly disruptive
for the entire US automotive value chain."
    And he notes that while Trump is "anti China vehicles
imports (like the Dems)" he is in favor of Chinese automakers
building cars in the U.S. But he says this "would also be highly
disruptive to the current US auto supply complex." 
    On Friday shares of EV maker Tesla  TSLA.O  are down ~2%
while GM shares are off 0.3% and F is down ~1%. AXL is down 1.4%
while PHIN is up 4.7%.
       
    (Sinéad Carew)
     *****       
    
    
    FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
    
    GLOBAL BUSINESS SURVEY: RECESSION WORRIES CONTAINED, TRUMP
VIEWED AS MOST SEVERE GEOPOLITICAL RISK - CLICK HERE
    
    INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BULLS BULK UP - AAII - CLICK HERE
    
    NVIDIA HAS STRONG CORRELATION WITH SHORT INTEREST, S3 OFFERS
INSIGHTS - CLICK HERE
    
    HAPPY $5.3 TRILLION TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY - CLICK HERE
    
    WALL STREET STEPS BACK AS IT DIGESTS FED WEEK - CLICK HERE
    
    KBW SAYS WELLS FARGO'S LATEST REGULATORY WOES RAISE
UNCERTAINTY AROUND ASSET CAP LIFT - CLICK HERE
    
    S&P 500 INDEX: NEW HIGHS, BUT ORBS OF INFLUENCE ARE OUT
THERE -  CLICK HERE
    
    TIME TO FIGHT THE FED? - CLICK HERE
    
    BOE AND FED TO KEEP GOING THEIR SEPARATE WAYS - CLICK HERE
    
    HIT THE SHOPS! SELL THE SHARES - CLICK HERE
    
    CHINA WORRIES HIT EUROPE, AGAIN - CLICK HERE
    
    SET FOR LOWER OPEN, BUT ALL GOOD REALLY - CLICK HERE
    
        MORNING BID - BOJ BRINGS YEN INTO SHARPER FOCUS - CLICK
HERE