Poll: Polish zloty seen leading CEE currency gains

Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski SA

01/07/2026 14:01

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data
By Anita Komuves

    BUDAPEST, July 1 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies are mostly expected to firm in the next six months, led by the Polish zloty as investors focus more on domestic economic growth assuming the Middle East conflict eases, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The zloty EURPLN= was seen as gaining the most in the region, adding 1.2% from Tuesday's closing level and firming to 4.25 per euro in six months. 
CEE currencies have faced major pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar and volatile oil prices caused by the Iran war. 
"It's all about geopolitics, the state of the global economy and how we see it in six months' time," said Grzegorz Ogonek, an economist at Erste Bank Polska.
He said the zloty should be supported if the conflict eases and "we should see the continued decent momentum in the Polish economy, plus the central bank targeting placing its policy rate somewhere close to, let's say, small positive values in terms of real interest rates."
Ogonek expects central bank rates to be unchanged this year and next.
On Tuesday, data showed June inflation slowed to 2.5% from a year earlier in Poland, reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged and could even fall this year.
     
FORINT EXPECTED TO FIRM FURTHER ON POST-ELECTION OPTIMISM
The Hungarian forint is expected to trade near its recent levels in the next six months, firming 0.3% to 355.00 per euro.
It has firmed about 8% versus the euro since the start of the year, making it the best performer in central Europe. It firmed to a more than four-year high last month at 348.60.
In 12 months, however, poll respondents expect it to strengthen 1% from Tuesday's close, to 352.52 versus the euro.
"The elections in April have led to the formation of a pro-European, reform-oriented government in Hungary. Progress on EU funds, and commitment of the new government to move towards euro adoption by 2030 ... resulted in sizeable HUF strengthening," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note.
They expect further strengthening of the forint on the basis of economic growth, the inflow of EU funds and steps towards euro adoption.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was expected to firm 0.3% versus the euro to trade at 24.2 in six months.
Romania's leu EURRON= was seen easing 0.3% from Tuesday's closing level to 5.26 per euro in the next half year.
     
(Other stories from the Reuters July foreign exchange poll)
     

 (Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest and Alan Charlish and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw, Polling by Mumal Rathore and Indradip Ghosh, Editing by William Maclean)
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